VPS 0-2 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 43% as VPS take on Ilves.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 9 as VPS welcome Ilves to Lemonsoft Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 26 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
VPS — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
VPS's home record at Lemonsoft Stadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Lemonsoft Stadion this season.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Ilves have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ilves have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
VPS carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for VPS, 0 for Ilves and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 3–2 with VPS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VPS trading profile (31 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Ilves trading profile (31 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VPS 55% versus Ilves 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VPS 68% | Ilves 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 0.90 xG and Ilves 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 0.773 / defence 0.817 | Ilves attack 0.786 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.130. VPS's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 VPS games / 29 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 34% | Draw 43% | Ilves 24%. Fair-value odds: VPS 2.94 | Draw 2.33 | Ilves 4.17. The draw (43%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.62. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.62 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Ilves's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 43% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.62 combined xG gives a 22% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: VPS 50% | Ilves 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 34% | Draw 43% | Ilves 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 34% | xG VPS 0.90 / Ilves 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 0.773 / def 0.817 | Ilves attack 0.786 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Draw (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
VPS xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Ilves xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs Ilves kick off?
VPS vs Ilves kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 26 May 2023 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs Ilves?
VPS 0 - 2 Ilves.
Where is VPS vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs Ilves part of?
VPS vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 34% chance of winning, Ilves a 24% chance, and a 43% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in VPS vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both VPS and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Ilves?
Record (2 meetings): VPS 2W | Draws 0 | Ilves 0W.
What form are VPS and Ilves in?
VPS (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Ilves (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates VPS's attack at 0.77x the league average against Ilves's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.98
43%
2.35
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
VPS xG
Total xG
1.62
0.73
Ilves xG
2.98
34%
Home win
2.35
43%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
10%
10.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.8 | 14.4 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.4%.
How many goals are VPS and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for VPS and 0.73 for Ilves, a combined total of 1.62.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VPS's recent record stands at 13W 5D 13L from 31 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Ilves, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 14L across 31 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VPS on 1.42 PPG, Ilves on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VPS have managed 3W 3D 8L from 14 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.42 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Ilves's away record stands at 5W 6D 3L across 14 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VPS are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.61 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ilves in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Current Season
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and Ilves in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 13W 5D 13L in their last 31 games (1.42 PPG), while Ilves have gone 10W 7D 14L in their last 31 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or Ilves away?
Ilves's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 0.86 PPG; Ilves away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VPS and Ilves runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when VPS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VPS's record when hosting Ilves specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VPS
1
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 5, Ilves have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VPS and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when VPS 3-2 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between VPS and Ilves?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 50%, Ilves 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for VPS and 64% for Ilves. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ilves in 36%; VPS have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of VPS's recent matches and 57% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VPS vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of VPS's matches and 64% of Ilves's.
Do VPS and Ilves tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Ilves in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ilves cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over VPS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat VPS 0-2 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 0.90 xG and Ilves 0.73 xG, a combined 1.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. VPS fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Ilves outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.77 / defence 0.82 against Ilves attack 0.79 / defence 0.94, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 34% | Draw 43% | Ilves 24%, with the draw its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Ilves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 68%, Ilves 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (31 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Ilves's trading profile (31 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VPS 1.42 PPG, Ilves 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ilves win broke the near-deadlock. VPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Ilves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.