VPS 3-2 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VPS at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this VPS vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 4 as VPS welcome Ilves to Lemonsoft Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
VPS — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VPS's home record at Lemonsoft Stadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Ilves have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Ilves have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (VPS) versus 1.50 (Ilves). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VPS register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Ilves in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for VPS, 4 for Ilves and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Jul 2025, ended 2–3 with Ilves winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VPS trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Ilves trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VPS 73% and Ilves 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VPS 66% | Ilves 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.24 xG and Ilves 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 0.855 / defence 0.863 | Ilves attack 1.112 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.239. Data: 25 VPS games / 25 Ilves games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: VPS 38% | Draw 27% | Ilves 35%. Fair-value odds: VPS 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Ilves 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VPS at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: VPS 70% | Ilves 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (25 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 38% | Draw 27% | Ilves 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG VPS 1.24 / Ilves 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 0.855 / def 0.863 | Ilves attack 1.112 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: VPS (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Ilves xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs Ilves kick off?
VPS vs Ilves kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 24 April 2026 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs Ilves?
VPS 3 - 2 Ilves.
Where is VPS vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs Ilves part of?
VPS vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 38% chance of winning, Ilves a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both VPS and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Ilves?
Record (8 meetings): VPS 3W | Draws 1 | Ilves 4W.
What form are VPS and Ilves in?
VPS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Ilves (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates VPS's attack at 0.85x the league average against Ilves's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (25/25 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
38%
2.66
27%
3.64
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
VPS xG
Total xG
2.43
1.19
Ilves xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
11%
8.75
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are VPS and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for VPS and 1.19 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VPS's recent record stands at 19W 13D 23L from 55 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ilves, meanwhile, have gone 33W 11D 11L across 55 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ilves by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VPS heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VPS have managed 10W 7D 10L from 27 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ilves's away record stands at 13W 6D 8L across 27 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
VPS are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 2.16 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VPS have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ilves in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Blended
Ilves
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and Ilves in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 games (1.27 PPG), while Ilves have gone 33W 11D 11L in their last 55 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or Ilves away?
Ilves's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 1.37 PPG; Ilves away: 1.67 PPG.
Have VPS or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
VPS have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Ilves in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VPS and Ilves runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: VPS have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
VPS's record when hosting Ilves specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VPS
1
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 5, Ilves have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VPS and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Ilves 0-1 VPS.
Who has won more matches between VPS and Ilves?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ilves see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 67%, Ilves 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (VPS) and 48% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: Ilves in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play Ilves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of VPS's games and 48% of Ilves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VPS vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of VPS's recent games and 48% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VPS and Ilves tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Ilves in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VPS edge out Ilves 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat Ilves 3-2 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.24 xG and Ilves 1.19 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. VPS beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ilves outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.85 / defence 0.86 against Ilves attack 1.11 / defence 1.17, drawn from 25/25 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it VPS 38% | Draw 27% | Ilves 35%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 66%, Ilves 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Ilves's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with VPS winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm. Ilves (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.