SJK 0-2 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SJK face Mariehamn.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mariehamn make the trip to OmaSP Stadion to face SJK in Veikkausliiga (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Friday 31 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
SJK (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, SJK have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mariehamn's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for SJK against 1.10 for Mariehamn. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for SJK, 1 for Mariehamn and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended SJK 3–2 Mariehamn — a SJK win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SJK — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 54% versus Mariehamn 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 48% | Mariehamn 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 2.12 xG and Mariehamn 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.146 / defence 0.982 | Mariehamn attack 0.825 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.279. Data: built from SJK's last 31 games and Mariehamn's last 30.
Result probabilities: SJK 59% | Draw 26% | Mariehamn 15%. Fair-value odds: SJK 1.68 | Draw 3.88 | Mariehamn 6.77. The model has a clear lean to SJK (59%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.12 / 1.04) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SJK's last 10 home games and Mariehamn's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SJK 80% (last 10 home games) | Mariehamn 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 9 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 31 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 59% | Draw 26% | Mariehamn 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG SJK 2.12 / Mariehamn 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.146 / def 0.982 | Mariehamn attack 0.825 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: SJK (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Mariehamn xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SJK vs Mariehamn FAQs
What time does SJK vs Mariehamn kick off?
SJK vs Mariehamn kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 31 May 2024 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Mariehamn?
SJK 0 - 2 Mariehamn.
Where is SJK vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Mariehamn part of?
SJK vs Mariehamn is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 9) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 59% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SJK and Mariehamn will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SJK vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SJK's attack at 1.15x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.82x) against SJK's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from SJK's last 31 games and Mariehamn's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
59%
1.68
26%
3.88
15%
6.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
SJK xG
Total xG
3.16
1.04
Mariehamn xG
1.68
59%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
6.77
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
12%
8.36
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
2%
56.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SJK vs Mariehamn Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are SJK and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for SJK and 1.04 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Mariehamn?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, SJK have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 22W 12D 22L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Mariehamn's form line: 15W 15D 26L from 56 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for SJK against 1.07 for Mariehamn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SJK have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 28 home games (13W 6D 9L).
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 7W 6D 15L from their last 28 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SJK are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.29 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Current Season
Mariehamn
Current Season
SJK (Home) vs Mariehamn (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SJK
Current Season
Mariehamn
Current Season
❓ SJK vs Mariehamn Form FAQs
What form are SJK and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 22W 12D 22L in their last 56 games (1.39 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 15W 15D 26L in their last 56 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Mariehamn away?
SJK's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.61 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between SJK and Mariehamn, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SJK won Mariehamn 0-4 SJK on 21 Jul 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
SJK
0
Draws
3
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ SJK vs Mariehamn H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Mariehamn?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SJK have won 7, Mariehamn have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Mariehamn last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: SJK 2-1 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Mariehamn?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 64%, Mariehamn 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (SJK) and 50% (Mariehamn). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SJK vs Mariehamn Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SJK and Mariehamn matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of SJK's games and 61% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SJK and Mariehamn matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of SJK's matches and 50% of Mariehamn's.
Do SJK and Mariehamn matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of SJK's recent matches and 75% of Mariehamn's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mariehamn cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SJK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat SJK 0-2 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 2.12 xG and Mariehamn 1.04 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SJK fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Mariehamn outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.15 / defence 0.98 against Mariehamn attack 0.82 / defence 1.17, drawn from 31/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 59% | Draw 26% | Mariehamn 15%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Mariehamn win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 48%, Mariehamn 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mariehamn's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.39 PPG, Mariehamn 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. SJK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Mariehamn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.