SJK 3-1 Inter Turku – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SJK face Inter Turku.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Inter Turku travel to OmaSP Stadion to take on SJK in Veikkausliiga (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Friday 17 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
SJK — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SJK's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Inter Turku stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Inter Turku have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SJK 0.80 PPG, Inter Turku 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, SJK have won 2, Inter Turku 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended SJK 2–1 Inter Turku — a SJK win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SJK in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Inter Turku in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 54% versus Inter Turku 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 48% | Inter Turku 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 2.06 xG and Inter Turku 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.128 / defence 0.993 | Inter Turku attack 0.910 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.289. Inter Turku's defence rating of 1.235 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SJK's projected output up. Data: built from SJK's last 29 games and Inter Turku's last 28.
Result probabilities: SJK 56% | Draw 25% | Inter Turku 19%. Fair-value odds: SJK 1.79 | Draw 3.92 | Inter Turku 5.34. The model has a clear lean to SJK (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.06 / 1.17) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SJK are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SJK's last 10 home games and Inter Turku's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SJK 80% (last 10 home games) | Inter Turku 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Inter Turku | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 7 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 56% | Draw 25% | Inter Turku 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG SJK 2.06 / Inter Turku 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.128 / def 0.993 | Inter Turku attack 0.910 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: SJK (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Inter Turku xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SJK vs Inter Turku FAQs
What time does SJK vs Inter Turku kick off?
SJK vs Inter Turku kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Friday 17 May 2024 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Inter Turku?
SJK 3 - 1 Inter Turku.
Where is SJK vs Inter Turku being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Inter Turku part of?
SJK vs Inter Turku is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 7) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Inter Turku?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 56% chance of winning, Inter Turku a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Inter Turku?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SJK and Inter Turku will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SJK vs Inter Turku have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SJK's attack at 1.13x the league average against Inter Turku's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inter Turku's attack versus SJK's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SJK's last 29 games and Inter Turku's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
56%
1.79
25%
3.92
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
SJK xG
Total xG
3.23
1.17
Inter Turku xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
13%
7.86
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
2%
42.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SJK vs Inter Turku Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Inter Turku?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are SJK and Inter Turku expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for SJK and 1.17 for Inter Turku, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Inter Turku?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SJK come into this having played 56 games, going 22W 12D 22L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D.
On the other side, Inter Turku sit at 1.21 PPG from 56 outings (19W 11D 26L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SJK on 1.39 PPG, Inter Turku on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SJK's home form reads 14W 6D 9L across their last 29 home games, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, Inter Turku have taken 1.03 points per game from their last 29 away games (8W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SJK are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Inter Turku are on 1.34 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Inter Turku in 62%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Current Season
Inter Turku
Current Season
SJK (Home) vs Inter Turku (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SJK
Current Season
Inter Turku
Current Season
❓ SJK vs Inter Turku Form FAQs
What form are SJK and Inter Turku in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 22W 12D 22L in their last 56 games (1.39 PPG), while Inter Turku have gone 19W 11D 26L in their last 56 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Inter Turku away?
SJK's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.66 PPG; Inter Turku away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from July 2023. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was on 23 June 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Aug 2024, when Inter Turku won Inter Turku 3-0 SJK.
SJK's record when hosting Inter Turku specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SJK
2
Draws
4
Inter Turku
Recent Meetings
❓ SJK vs Inter Turku H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Inter Turku?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SJK have won 4, Inter Turku have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Inter Turku last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 June 2026: Inter Turku 1-1 SJK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Inter Turku are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SJK at 66%, Inter Turku at 66%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for SJK and 66% for Inter Turku. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter Turku in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Inter Turku away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SJK vs Inter Turku Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SJK and Inter Turku matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of SJK's games and 66% of Inter Turku's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SJK and Inter Turku matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of SJK's matches and 66% of Inter Turku's.
Do SJK and Inter Turku matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of SJK's recent matches and 79% of Inter Turku's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SJK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Inter Turku.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Inter Turku 3-1 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 2.06 xG and Inter Turku 1.17 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SJK beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.13 / defence 0.99 against Inter Turku attack 0.91 / defence 1.24, drawn from 29/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 56% | Draw 25% | Inter Turku 19%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 48%, Inter Turku 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (56 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Inter Turku's trading profile (56 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.39 PPG, Inter Turku 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock. SJK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Inter Turku (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.