SJK 3-3 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this SJK vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ilves make the trip to OmaSP Stadion to face SJK in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 July 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
SJK (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at OmaSP Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — SJK are significantly better at OmaSP Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ilves are 0.50 PPG clear of SJK in recent Veikkausliiga fixtures (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SJK have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Ilves in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 50% versus Ilves 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 50% | Ilves 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.33 xG and Ilves 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.057 / defence 1.018 | Ilves attack 0.885 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.387. Data: 35 SJK games / 35 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 38% | Draw 27% | Ilves 35%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Ilves 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SJK at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ilves (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SJK 80% | Ilves 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 38% | Draw 27% | Ilves 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG SJK 1.33 / Ilves 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.057 / def 1.018 | Ilves attack 0.885 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: SJK (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Ilves xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Ilves kick off?
SJK vs Ilves kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 July 2022 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Ilves?
SJK 3 - 3 Ilves.
Where is SJK vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Ilves part of?
SJK vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 38% chance of winning, Ilves a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both SJK and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Ilves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SJK and Ilves in?
SJK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Ilves (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SJK's attack at 1.06x the league average against Ilves's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (0.89x) against SJK's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
38%
2.61
27%
3.70
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
SJK xG
Total xG
2.58
1.25
Ilves xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
11%
9.12
9%
10.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are SJK and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for SJK and 1.25 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SJK's recent record stands at 18W 9D 13L from 40 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ilves, meanwhile, have gone 16W 6D 18L across 40 games — 1.35 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for SJK against 1.35 for Ilves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SJK have managed 10W 6D 4L from 20 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ilves's away record stands at 4W 5D 11L across 20 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ilves's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SJK are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.18 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and Ilves in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 18W 9D 13L in their last 40 games (1.58 PPG), while Ilves have gone 16W 6D 18L in their last 40 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Ilves away?
SJK's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.80 PPG; Ilves away: 0.85 PPG.
Have SJK or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
SJK have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Ilves in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 4-0 on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SJK
6
Draws
1
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 3, Ilves have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Ilves 2-2 SJK.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Ilves?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 65%, Ilves 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (SJK) and 50% (Ilves). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play Ilves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of SJK's games and 55% of Ilves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of SJK's matches and 50% of Ilves's.
Do SJK and Ilves tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ilves in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SJK and Ilves share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 14, as SJK and Ilves drew 3-3 in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.33 xG and Ilves 1.25 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. SJK beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ilves outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.06 / defence 1.02 against Ilves attack 0.89 / defence 0.90, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 38% | Draw 27% | Ilves 35%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 50%, Ilves 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Ilves's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.58 PPG, Ilves 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SJK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.