SJK 4-2 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this SJK vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ilves make the trip to OmaSP Stadion to face SJK in Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 3. The match kicks off on Friday 22 October 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
SJK (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at OmaSP Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for SJK against 1.30 for Ilves. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 38% versus Ilves 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (SJK 46% | Ilves 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.94 xG and Ilves 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.557 / defence 1.178 | Ilves attack 0.663 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.079. SJK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.557 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ilves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing SJK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 SJK games / 22 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 63% | Draw 21% | Ilves 16%. Fair-value odds: SJK 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Ilves 6.25. The model has a clear lean to SJK (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SJK at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: SJK 50% | Ilves 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 63% | Draw 21% | Ilves 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 49% | xG SJK 1.94 / Ilves 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.557 / def 1.178 | Ilves attack 0.663 / def 1.294 | league avg home 0.963 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: SJK (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
SJK xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Ilves xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Ilves kick off?
SJK vs Ilves kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 22 October 2021 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Ilves?
SJK 4 - 2 Ilves.
Where is SJK vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Ilves part of?
SJK vs Ilves is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 63% chance of winning, Ilves a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SJK and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Ilves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SJK and Ilves in?
SJK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Ilves (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SJK's attack at 1.56x the league average against Ilves's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (0.66x) against SJK's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.70
16%
6.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
SJK xG
Total xG
2.78
0.84
Ilves xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
6.41
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
14%
6.96
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
2%
44.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.1 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are SJK and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for SJK and 0.84 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Ilves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SJK's recent record stands at 12W 5D 7L from 24 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ilves, meanwhile, have gone 10W 3D 11L across 24 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for SJK against 1.38 for Ilves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SJK have managed 6W 3D 2L from 11 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ilves's away record stands at 1W 2D 8L across 11 trips, a 0.45 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ilves's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SJK are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.00 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: SJK have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Ilves in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and Ilves in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 12W 5D 7L in their last 24 games (1.71 PPG), while Ilves have gone 10W 3D 11L in their last 24 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Ilves away?
SJK's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.91 PPG; Ilves away: 0.45 PPG.
Have SJK or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
SJK have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Ilves in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 4-0 on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SJK
6
Draws
1
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 3, Ilves have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Ilves 2-2 SJK.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Ilves?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 54%, Ilves 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (SJK) and 36% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: Ilves in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of SJK's recent matches and 54% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SJK vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of SJK's recent games and 36% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SJK and Ilves tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Ilves in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SJK cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Ilves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Ilves 4-2 at OmaSP Stadion, Championship Round - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.94 xG and Ilves 0.84 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. SJK beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ilves outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.56 / defence 1.18 against Ilves attack 0.66 / defence 1.29, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 63% | Draw 21% | Ilves 16%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 46%, Ilves 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Ilves's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.71 PPG, Ilves 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock. SJK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.