SJK 2-2 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this SJK vs Haka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Haka travel to OmaSP Stadion to take on SJK. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 22 June 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SJK stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK at OmaSP Stadion this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Haka have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Haka have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SJK at 1.80 PPG versus Haka's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
SJK in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Haka in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 44% versus Haka 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 52% | Haka 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.56 xG and Haka 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 0.912 / defence 0.871 | Haka attack 0.956 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.357. Haka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing SJK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 SJK games / 33 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 47% | Draw 26% | Haka 27%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Haka 3.70. SJK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SJK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: SJK 60% | Haka 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Jun 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 47% | Draw 26% | Haka 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG SJK 1.56 / Haka 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 0.912 / def 0.871 | Haka attack 0.956 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: SJK (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Haka xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Haka kick off?
SJK vs Haka kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 22 June 2022 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Haka?
SJK 2 - 2 Haka.
Where is SJK vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Haka part of?
SJK vs Haka is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 47% chance of winning, Haka a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SJK and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Haka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SJK and Haka in?
SJK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Haka (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SJK's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus SJK's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.83
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
SJK xG
Total xG
2.70
1.13
Haka xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
6%
17.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are SJK and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for SJK and 1.13 for Haka, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, SJK have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 14W 6D 7L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haka's form line: 10W 5D 12L from 27 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SJK are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haka.
Venue Form
On home soil, SJK have posted 1.92 PPG from 13 outings (7W 4D 2L).
On the road, Haka have gone 6W 1D 6L from 13 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SJK are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.11 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Haka in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and Haka in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 14W 6D 7L in their last 27 games (1.78 PPG), while Haka have gone 10W 5D 12L in their last 27 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Haka away?
SJK's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.92 PPG; Haka away: 1.46 PPG.
Have SJK or Haka been keeping clean sheets recently?
SJK have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Haka in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when SJK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SJK's record when hosting Haka specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SJK
2
Draws
3
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 5, Haka have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Haka 2-3 SJK.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Haka?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 62%, Haka 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (SJK) and 46% (Haka).
On the defensive side: Haka in 38%; Haka in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of SJK's recent matches and 31% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SJK vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of SJK's recent games and 46% of Haka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SJK and Haka tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Haka in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SJK and Haka share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK and Haka finished level at 2-2 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.56 xG and Haka 1.13 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Haka outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 0.91 / defence 0.87 against Haka attack 0.96 / defence 1.30, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 47% | Draw 26% | Haka 27%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 52%, Haka 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Haka's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.