SJK 3-2 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AC Oulu at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this SJK vs AC Oulu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
OmaSP Stadion plays host to SJK versus AC Oulu in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 31 July 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SJK have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at OmaSP Stadion, SJK have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AC Oulu's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SJK have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, AC Oulu in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
AC Oulu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 52% versus AC Oulu 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 52% | AC Oulu 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.36 xG and AC Oulu 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.108 / defence 1.127 | AC Oulu attack 1.012 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.429. AC Oulu's defence strength of 0.791 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 SJK games / 37 AC Oulu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 32% | Draw 24% | AC Oulu 44%. Fair-value odds: SJK 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | AC Oulu 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AC Oulu as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AC Oulu if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SJK 80% | AC Oulu 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 32% | Draw 24% | AC Oulu 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG SJK 1.36 / AC Oulu 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.108 / def 1.127 | AC Oulu attack 1.012 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.63
AC Oulu xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs AC Oulu kick off?
SJK vs AC Oulu kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 July 2022 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs AC Oulu?
SJK 3 - 2 AC Oulu.
Where is SJK vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs AC Oulu part of?
SJK vs AC Oulu is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 32% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SJK and AC Oulu will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and AC Oulu?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SJK and AC Oulu in?
SJK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. AC Oulu (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SJK's attack at 1.11x the league average against AC Oulu's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AC Oulu's attack (1.01x) against SJK's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
32%
3.13
24%
4.15
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
SJK xG
Total xG
2.99
1.63
AC Oulu xG
3.13
32%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
6%
15.95
11%
8.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are SJK and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for SJK and 1.63 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs AC Oulu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, SJK have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 19W 10D 13L record — D-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AC Oulu's form line: 14W 8D 20L from 42 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SJK are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AC Oulu.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SJK have posted 1.76 PPG from 21 outings (10W 7D 4L).
On the road, AC Oulu have gone 5W 4D 12L from 21 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SJK are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; AC Oulu are on 1.07 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
AC Oulu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and AC Oulu in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 19W 10D 13L in their last 42 games (1.60 PPG), while AC Oulu have gone 14W 8D 20L in their last 42 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or AC Oulu away?
SJK's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.76 PPG; AC Oulu away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SJK won 0-3 on 29 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 meetings on their own ground against AC Oulu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SJK
2
Draws
3
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and AC Oulu?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 5, AC Oulu have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SJK and AC Oulu last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when SJK 0-1 AC Oulu.
Who has won more matches between SJK and AC Oulu?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 67%, AC Oulu 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (SJK) and 52% (AC Oulu). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AC Oulu in 33%; AC Oulu in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play AC Oulu?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SJK's games and 48% of AC Oulu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs AC Oulu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of SJK's matches and 52% of AC Oulu's.
Do SJK and AC Oulu tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, AC Oulu in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SJK defy the odds to beat AC Oulu 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat AC Oulu 3-2 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.36 xG and AC Oulu 1.63 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SJK beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.11 / defence 1.13 against AC Oulu attack 1.01 / defence 0.79, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 32% | Draw 24% | AC Oulu 44%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual SJK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 52%, AC Oulu 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
AC Oulu's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. SJK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm. AC Oulu (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.