Mariehamn 2-2 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VPS at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs VPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Relegation Round - 5 as Mariehamn welcome VPS to Wiklöf Holding Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mariehamn — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Mariehamn have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VPS stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VPS's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Mariehamn) versus 1.70 (VPS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Mariehamn in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
VPS in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 62% versus VPS 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 50% | VPS 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.72 xG and VPS 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 1.039 / defence 1.104 | VPS attack 1.106 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.450. Data: 44 Mariehamn games / 22 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 37% | Draw 24% | VPS 39%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | VPS 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VPS as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 70% | VPS 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 37% | Draw 24% | VPS 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Mariehamn 1.72 / VPS 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 1.039 / def 1.104 | VPS attack 1.106 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: VPS (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.77
VPS xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs VPS kick off?
Mariehamn vs VPS kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs VPS?
Mariehamn 2 - 2 VPS.
Where is Mariehamn vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs VPS part of?
Mariehamn vs VPS is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 37% chance of winning, VPS a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Mariehamn and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and VPS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mariehamn and VPS in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. VPS (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 1.04x the league average against VPS's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
37%
2.70
24%
4.22
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
3.48
1.77
VPS xG
2.70
37%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
6%
15.84
7%
14.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.77 for VPS, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Mariehamn have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 9W 6D 11L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VPS's form line: 10W 4D 12L from 26 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mariehamn on 1.27 PPG, VPS on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mariehamn have posted 1.46 PPG from 13 outings (5W 4D 4L).
On the road, VPS have gone 7W 1D 5L from 13 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Mariehamn are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 1.92 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
VPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and VPS in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 9W 6D 11L in their last 26 games (1.27 PPG), while VPS have gone 10W 4D 12L in their last 26 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or VPS away?
VPS's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.46 PPG; VPS away: 1.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: VPS have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jun 2025, when VPS won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting VPS specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Mariehamn
3
Draws
6
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 1, VPS have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when VPS 4-0 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and VPS?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 69%, VPS 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Mariehamn and 69% for VPS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 69% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mariehamn keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; VPS in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play VPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Mariehamn's games and 54% of VPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mariehamn vs VPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Mariehamn's matches and 69% of VPS's.
Do Mariehamn and VPS tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, VPS in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mariehamn and VPS share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Relegation Round - 5, as Mariehamn and VPS drew 2-2 in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.72 xG and VPS 1.77 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 1.04 / defence 1.10 against VPS attack 1.11 / defence 1.17, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 37% | Draw 24% | VPS 39%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 50%, VPS 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
VPS's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 1.27 PPG, VPS 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.