KuPS 2-1 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KuPS at 38%, yet in-form VPS provide a compelling counter-argument — this KuPS vs VPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees VPS travel to Väre Areena to take on KuPS. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 May 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, KuPS stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Väre Areena, KuPS have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Väre Areena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
VPS — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
VPS's away record: 9W 0D 1L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (2.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. VPS are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 2.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). KuPS's 20% and VPS's 10% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for KuPS, 2 for VPS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with VPS winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
KuPS in-play tendencies (54 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
VPS in-play tendencies (54 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 43% versus VPS 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 43% | VPS 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.54 xG and VPS 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.145 / defence 0.907 | VPS attack 1.119 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.375. Data: 27 KuPS games / 27 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 38% | Draw 31% | VPS 31%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | VPS 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 62% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
On the Poisson output, KuPS are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form VPS (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KuPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. This conflicts with form data: KuPS 20% | VPS 10% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 38% | Draw 31% | VPS 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 62% | xG KuPS 1.54 / VPS 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.145 / def 0.907 | VPS attack 1.119 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: KuPS (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
1.40
VPS xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs VPS kick off?
KuPS vs VPS kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs VPS?
KuPS 2 - 1 VPS.
Where is KuPS vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs VPS part of?
KuPS vs VPS is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 38% chance of winning, VPS a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both KuPS and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and VPS?
Record (3 meetings): KuPS 1W | Draws 0 | VPS 2W.
What form are KuPS and VPS in?
KuPS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. VPS (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates KuPS's attack at 1.15x the league average against VPS's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus KuPS's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
38%
2.65
31%
3.23
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.94
1.40
VPS xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
9%
10.70
7%
14.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are KuPS and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for KuPS and 1.40 for VPS, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
KuPS's recent record stands at 33W 11D 10L from 54 games, a 2.04 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VPS, meanwhile, have gone 28W 8D 18L across 54 games — 1.70 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: KuPS on 2.04 PPG, VPS on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, KuPS have managed 18W 5D 5L from 28 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VPS's away record stands at 17W 3D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.93 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
KuPS are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 1.69 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
VPS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and VPS in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 33W 11D 10L in their last 54 games (2.04 PPG), while VPS have gone 28W 8D 18L in their last 54 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or VPS away?
KuPS's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.11 PPG; VPS away: 1.93 PPG.
Have KuPS or VPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, VPS in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between KuPS and VPS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
KuPS's record when hosting VPS specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KuPS
2
Draws
3
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 5, VPS have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when KuPS 3-1 VPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and VPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 39%, VPS 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (KuPS) and 54% (VPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; VPS in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play VPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of KuPS's recent matches and 43% of VPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs VPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of KuPS's recent games and 54% of VPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and VPS tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, VPS in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KuPS edge out VPS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat VPS 2-1 at Väre Areena, Regular Season - 6, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.54 xG and VPS 1.40 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.15 / defence 0.91 against VPS attack 1.12 / defence 0.88, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 38% | Draw 31% | VPS 31%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 43%, VPS 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
VPS's trading profile (54 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KuPS 2.04 PPG, VPS 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KuPS win broke the near-deadlock. VPS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.