Ilves 1-0 Kooteepee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ilves at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ilves vs Kooteepee encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 4 as Ilves welcome Kooteepee to Ratinan Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ilves stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves at Ratinan Stadion this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ratinan Stadion this season.
Kooteepee — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Kooteepee haven't played a Veikkausliiga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Kooteepee have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Ilves are in the better shape of the two on current Veikkausliiga data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ilves register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Kooteepee in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ilves, 0 for Kooteepee and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ilves in-play and half-time data (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Kooteepee in-play and half-time data (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ilves 63% and Kooteepee 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 63% | Kooteepee 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.50 xG and Kooteepee 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.102 / defence 1.039 | Kooteepee attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 0.946. Data: 25 Ilves games / 3 Kooteepee games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ilves 49% | Draw 34% | Kooteepee 17%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 2.04 | Draw 2.94 | Kooteepee 5.88. Ilves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ilves at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ilves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Ilves 60% | Kooteepee 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs Kooteepee | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Ratinan Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 49% | Draw 34% | Kooteepee 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Ilves 1.50 / Kooteepee 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.102 / def 1.039 | Kooteepee attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.181 / away 0.946 • Poisson stance: Ilves (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Kooteepee xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs Kooteepee kick off?
Ilves vs Kooteepee kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Ratinan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs Kooteepee?
Ilves 1 - 0 Kooteepee.
Where is Ilves vs Kooteepee being played?
The match is being played at Ratinan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs Kooteepee part of?
Ilves vs Kooteepee is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs Kooteepee?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 49% chance of winning, Kooteepee a 17% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs Kooteepee?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ilves and Kooteepee will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs Kooteepee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Kooteepee?
Record (2 meetings): Ilves 1W | Draws 1 | Kooteepee 0W.
What form are Ilves and Kooteepee in?
Ilves (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Kooteepee (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ilves's attack rating (1.10) and Kooteepee's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kooteepee's attack versus Ilves's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (25/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
49%
2.04
34%
2.98
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Ilves xG
Total xG
2.33
0.84
Kooteepee xG
2.04
49%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
4%
25.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs Kooteepee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Ilves and Kooteepee expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Ilves and 0.84 for Kooteepee, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs Kooteepee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ilves come into this having played 27 games, going 9W 7D 11L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kooteepee sit at 0.41 PPG from 27 outings (2W 5D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. Kooteepee haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Ilves carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Kooteepee — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ilves's home form reads 5W 1D 8L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Kooteepee have taken 0.43 points per game from 14 outings (1W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ilves are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Kooteepee are on 0.93 scored and 2.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ilves have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Kooteepee in 63%.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
Kooteepee
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and Kooteepee in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 9W 7D 11L in their last 27 games (1.26 PPG), while Kooteepee have gone 2W 5D 20L in their last 27 (0.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or Kooteepee away?
Ilves's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.14 PPG; Kooteepee away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ilves and Kooteepee runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 July 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ilves have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2025, when Ilves won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ilves's record when hosting Kooteepee specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Ilves
2
Draws
0
Kooteepee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Kooteepee?
From 7 meetings on record, Ilves have won 5, Kooteepee have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and Kooteepee last play each other?
They last met on 2 July 2025, when Ilves 2-1 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and Kooteepee?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 64%, Kooteepee 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Ilves and 71% for Kooteepee. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kooteepee in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / Kooteepee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play Kooteepee?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Ilves's games and 64% of Kooteepee's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ilves vs Kooteepee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Ilves's matches and 71% of Kooteepee's.
Do Ilves and Kooteepee tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Kooteepee in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ilves edge out Kooteepee 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat Kooteepee 1-0 at Ratinan Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.50 xG and Kooteepee 0.84 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kooteepee landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.10 / defence 1.04 against Kooteepee attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 25/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 49% | Draw 34% | Kooteepee 17%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 63%, Kooteepee 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Kooteepee's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.41. That form edge translated into the three points. Ilves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Kooteepee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.