Ilves 3-2 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs Haka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Championship Round - 1 sees Haka travel to Tammelan Stadion to take on Ilves. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Ilves have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Tammelan Stadion this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tammelan Stadion.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haka stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Ilves) versus 1.40 (Haka). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Haka have the better historical record — 4 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Ilves.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 4.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Jul 2024, ended 3–4 with Haka winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Haka have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 4.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Ilves trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Haka trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 51% versus Haka 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 49% | Haka 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 2.24 xG and Haka 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.428 / defence 0.913 | Haka attack 1.042 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.248. Ilves carry an above-average attack strength of 1.428 — their λ of 2.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Ilves games / 44 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 61% | Draw 21% | Haka 19%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Haka 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Ilves (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.24 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Haka lead the H2H ledger, but Ilves carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ilves at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ilves 50% | Haka 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Tammelan Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 61% | Draw 21% | Haka 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 63% | xG Ilves 2.24 / Haka 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.428 / def 0.913 | Haka attack 1.042 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Ilves (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Haka xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs Haka kick off?
Ilves vs Haka kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Tammelan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs Haka?
Ilves 3 - 2 Haka.
Where is Ilves vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Tammelan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs Haka part of?
Ilves vs Haka is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 61% chance of winning, Haka a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Ilves and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Haka?
Record (7 meetings): Ilves 1W | Draws 2 | Haka 4W.
What form are Ilves and Haka in?
Ilves (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Haka (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ilves's attack rating (1.43) and Haka's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 2.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus Ilves's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.86
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Ilves xG
Total xG
3.43
1.19
Haka xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
11%
9.42
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
2%
50.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Ilves and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Ilves and 1.19 for Haka, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs Haka?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ilves come into this having played 49 games, going 19W 15D 15L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haka sit at 1.37 PPG from 49 outings (17W 16D 16L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ilves on 1.47 PPG, Haka on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ilves's home form reads 11W 7D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Haka have taken 1.08 points per game from 24 outings (8W 2D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ilves are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.43 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and Haka in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 19W 15D 15L in their last 49 games (1.47 PPG), while Haka have gone 17W 16D 16L in their last 49 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or Haka away?
Ilves's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.67 PPG; Haka away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Ilves or Haka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Haka in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ilves and Haka runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 June 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ilves have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2024, when Ilves won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ilves's record when hosting Haka specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ilves
2
Draws
4
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 4, Haka have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 28 June 2025, when Haka 0-4 Ilves.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 58%, Haka 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Ilves and 67% for Haka. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Haka in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Ilves's recent matches and 50% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ilves vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ilves's matches and 67% of Haka's.
Do Ilves and Haka tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Haka in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ilves edge out Haka 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat Haka 3-2 at Tammelan Stadion, Championship Round - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 2.24 xG and Haka 1.19 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Haka outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.43 / defence 0.91 against Haka attack 1.04 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 61% | Draw 21% | Haka 19%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 49%, Haka 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Haka's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 1.47 PPG, Haka 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ilves win broke the near-deadlock. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm. Haka (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.