HJK Helsinki 1-1 Ilves – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as HJK Helsinki take on Ilves.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ilves make the trip to Bolt Arena to face HJK Helsinki in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 May 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
HJK Helsinki have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for HJK Helsinki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
HJK Helsinki's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Bolt Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bolt Arena.
Ilves (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Ilves have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward HJK Helsinki. A 0.60 PPG lead over Ilves (2.20 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — HJK Helsinki lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2023, ended 1–0 with HJK Helsinki winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
HJK Helsinki goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — HJK Helsinki 56% versus Ilves 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (HJK Helsinki 50% | Ilves 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects HJK Helsinki 0.98 xG and Ilves 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: HJK Helsinki attack 0.924 / defence 0.767 | Ilves attack 0.923 / defence 0.674. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.216. Ilves's defence strength of 0.674 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. HJK Helsinki's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 31 HJK Helsinki games / 30 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: HJK Helsinki 34% | Draw 39% | Ilves 27%. Fair-value odds: HJK Helsinki 2.94 | Draw 2.56 | Ilves 3.70. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: HJK Helsinki 40% | Ilves 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: HJK Helsinki vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Bolt Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: HJK Helsinki 34% | Draw 39% | Ilves 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 39% | xG HJK Helsinki 0.98 / Ilves 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: HJK Helsinki attack 0.924 / def 0.767 | Ilves attack 0.923 / def 0.674 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
HJK Helsinki xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Ilves xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does HJK Helsinki vs Ilves kick off?
HJK Helsinki vs Ilves kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Bolt Arena.
What was the final score in HJK Helsinki vs Ilves?
HJK Helsinki 1 - 1 Ilves.
Where is HJK Helsinki vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Bolt Arena.
What competition is HJK Helsinki vs Ilves part of?
HJK Helsinki vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win HJK Helsinki vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives HJK Helsinki a 34% chance of winning, Ilves a 27% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in HJK Helsinki vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both HJK Helsinki and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will HJK Helsinki vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between HJK Helsinki and Ilves?
Record (2 meetings): HJK Helsinki 1W | Draws 1 | Ilves 0W.
What form are HJK Helsinki and Ilves in?
HJK Helsinki (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Ilves (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from HJK Helsinki's attack rating (0.92) and Ilves's defence rating (0.67), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (0.92x) against HJK Helsinki's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 31/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.96
39%
2.57
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
HJK Helsinki xG
Total xG
1.84
0.86
Ilves xG
2.96
34%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 13.6 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for HJK Helsinki vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are HJK Helsinki and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for HJK Helsinki and 0.86 for Ilves, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for HJK Helsinki vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
HJK Helsinki come into this having played 54 games, going 33W 12D 9L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for HJK Helsinki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 1.24 PPG from 54 outings (17W 16D 21L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
HJK Helsinki carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Ilves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
HJK Helsinki's home form reads 18W 4D 5L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 1.26 points per game from 27 outings (8W 10D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, HJK Helsinki come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
HJK Helsinki are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.44 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: HJK Helsinki have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
HJK Helsinki
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are HJK Helsinki and Ilves in coming into this match?
HJK Helsinki have gone 33W 12D 9L in their last 54 games (2.06 PPG), while Ilves have gone 17W 16D 21L in their last 54 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — HJK Helsinki at home or Ilves away?
HJK Helsinki's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — HJK Helsinki at home: 2.15 PPG; Ilves away: 1.26 PPG.
Have HJK Helsinki or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
HJK Helsinki have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Ilves in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: HJK Helsinki won 5-1 on 11 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, HJK Helsinki have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
HJK Helsinki
4
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between HJK Helsinki and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, HJK Helsinki have won 2, Ilves have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did HJK Helsinki and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when HJK Helsinki 2-2 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between HJK Helsinki and Ilves?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
HJK Helsinki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — HJK Helsinki 48%, Ilves 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (HJK Helsinki) and 52% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: HJK Helsinki keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Ilves in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = HJK Helsinki home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when HJK Helsinki play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of HJK Helsinki's recent matches and 52% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is HJK Helsinki vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of HJK Helsinki's recent games and 52% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do HJK Helsinki and Ilves tend to score early?
HJK Helsinki have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Ilves in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
HJK Helsinki and Ilves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
HJK Helsinki and Ilves finished level at 1-1 at Bolt Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting HJK Helsinki 0.98 xG and Ilves 0.86 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HJK Helsinki attack 0.92 / defence 0.77 against Ilves attack 0.92 / defence 0.67, drawn from 31/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it HJK Helsinki 34% | Draw 39% | Ilves 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HJK Helsinki 50%, Ilves 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
HJK Helsinki's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, HJK Helsinki arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. HJK Helsinki (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.