West Ham 1-1 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Ham at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as West Ham face Crystal Palace.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
West Ham and Crystal Palace meet at London Stadium in Premier League (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
West Ham's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
West Ham's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Crystal Palace have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Crystal Palace's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for West Ham, 2 for Crystal Palace and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Apr 2023, ended West Ham 3–4 Crystal Palace — a Crystal Palace win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
West Ham — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Crystal Palace — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 53% versus Crystal Palace 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 49% | Crystal Palace 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.60 xG and Crystal Palace 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 1.009 / defence 1.042 | Crystal Palace attack 0.843 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.382. Data: built from West Ham's last 51 games and Crystal Palace's last 51.
Result probabilities: West Ham 46% | Draw 25% | Crystal Palace 29%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 2.16 | Draw 4.05 | Crystal Palace 3.44. West Ham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates West Ham as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Ham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (West Ham's last 10 home games and Crystal Palace's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: West Ham 70% (last 10 home games) | Crystal Palace 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, matchday 14 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 46% | Draw 25% | Crystal Palace 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG West Ham 1.60 / Crystal Palace 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 1.009 / def 1.042 | Crystal Palace attack 0.843 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: West Ham (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Crystal Palace xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ West Ham vs Crystal Palace FAQs
What time does West Ham vs Crystal Palace kick off?
West Ham vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 3 December 2023 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Crystal Palace?
West Ham 1 - 1 Crystal Palace.
Where is West Ham vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Crystal Palace part of?
West Ham vs Crystal Palace is a Premier League fixture (matchday 14) (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 46% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making West Ham the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both West Ham and Crystal Palace will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will West Ham vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates West Ham's attack at 1.01x the league average against Crystal Palace's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crystal Palace's attack (0.84x) against West Ham's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from West Ham's last 51 games and Crystal Palace's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
46%
2.16
25%
4.05
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
West Ham xG
Total xG
2.81
1.22
Crystal Palace xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
6%
17.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ West Ham vs Crystal Palace Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are West Ham and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for West Ham and 1.22 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
West Ham's recent record stands at 17W 9D 25L from 51 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 21L across 51 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for West Ham against 1.18 for Crystal Palace. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, West Ham have managed 11W 5D 9L from their last 25 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crystal Palace's away record stands at 7W 5D 13L across their last 25 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Ham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
West Ham are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.04 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
Crystal Palace
Blended
West Ham (Home) vs Crystal Palace (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
West Ham
Blended
Crystal Palace
Blended
❓ West Ham vs Crystal Palace Form FAQs
What form are West Ham and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 17W 9D 25L in their last 51 games (1.18 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 15W 15D 21L in their last 51 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Crystal Palace away?
West Ham's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.52 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between West Ham and Crystal Palace, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 20 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Crystal Palace won Crystal Palace 5-2 West Ham on 21 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Ham have gone 0W 2D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Crystal Palace — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
West Ham
3
Draws
5
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ West Ham vs Crystal Palace H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Crystal Palace?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, West Ham have won 2, Crystal Palace have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Crystal Palace last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2026: Crystal Palace 0-0 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Crystal Palace?
Crystal Palace have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 52%, Crystal Palace 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (West Ham) and 40% (Crystal Palace).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ West Ham vs Crystal Palace Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in West Ham and Crystal Palace matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of West Ham's recent matches and 40% of Crystal Palace's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are West Ham and Crystal Palace matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of West Ham's recent games and 40% of Crystal Palace's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Ham and Crystal Palace matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of West Ham's recent matches and 64% of Crystal Palace's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
West Ham and Crystal Palace share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham and Crystal Palace finished level at 1-1 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.60 xG and Crystal Palace 1.22 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 1.01 / defence 1.04 against Crystal Palace attack 0.84 / defence 0.95, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 46% | Draw 25% | Crystal Palace 29%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 49%, Crystal Palace 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 1.18 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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