Tottenham 0-2 Wolves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tottenham at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tottenham vs Wolves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tottenham and Wolves meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Tottenham (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Tottenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tottenham have posted 6W 1D 3L at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Wolves have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Wolves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolves's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Tottenham. A 0.50 PPG lead over Wolves (2.00 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Tottenham, 0 for Wolves and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Tottenham winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Tottenham — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Wolves — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Tottenham 38% | Wolves 29%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tottenham 57% | Wolves 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 1.13 xG and Wolves 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 1.119 / defence 1.176 | Wolves attack 0.744 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.291. Data: 21 Tottenham games / 22 Wolves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tottenham 35% | Draw 31% | Wolves 34%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Wolves 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tottenham at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tottenham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Tottenham 40% | Wolves 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tottenham vs Wolves | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tottenham 35% | Draw 31% | Wolves 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Tottenham 1.13 / Wolves 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Tottenham attack 1.119 / def 1.176 | Wolves attack 0.744 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Tottenham xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Wolves xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tottenham vs Wolves kick off?
Tottenham vs Wolves kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What was the final score in Tottenham vs Wolves?
Tottenham 0 - 2 Wolves.
Where is Tottenham vs Wolves being played?
The match is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What competition is Tottenham vs Wolves part of?
Tottenham vs Wolves is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs Wolves?
Our statistical model gives Tottenham a 35% chance of winning, Wolves a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Wolves?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Tottenham and Wolves will score (BTTS).
Will Tottenham vs Wolves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Wolves?
Record (1 meetings): Tottenham 1W | Draws 0 | Wolves 0W.
What form are Tottenham and Wolves in?
Tottenham (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Wolves (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Tottenham's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Wolves's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Wolves's attack (0.74x) against Tottenham's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 21/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
35%
2.89
31%
3.23
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Tottenham xG
Total xG
2.26
1.13
Wolves xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs Wolves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Tottenham and Wolves expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Tottenham and 1.13 for Wolves, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs Wolves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Tottenham come into this having played 21 games, going 11W 3D 7L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Tottenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wolves sit at 1.62 PPG from 21 outings (10W 4D 7L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Wolves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Tottenham against 1.62 for Wolves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Tottenham's home form reads 6W 1D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolves have taken 2.00 points per game from 10 outings (6W 2D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tottenham are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Wolves are on 0.90 scored and 0.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolves in 29%.
Defensively: Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Wolves in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tottenham
Blended
Wolves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tottenham and Wolves in coming into this match?
Tottenham have gone 11W 3D 7L in their last 21 games (1.71 PPG), while Wolves have gone 10W 4D 7L in their last 21 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tottenham at home or Wolves away?
Wolves's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tottenham at home: 1.90 PPG; Wolves away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Tottenham or Wolves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Wolves in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tottenham have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Wolves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Tottenham
2
Draws
5
Wolves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Wolves?
From 10 meetings on record, Tottenham have won 3, Wolves have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tottenham and Wolves last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Wolves 0-1 Tottenham.
Who has won more matches between Tottenham and Wolves?
Wolves have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Tottenham) and 30% (Wolves) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Tottenham) and 20% (Wolves).
On the defensive side: Tottenham keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Wolves in 50%; Wolves in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tottenham home games / Wolves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tottenham play Wolves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Tottenham's recent matches and 30% of Wolves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tottenham vs Wolves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Tottenham's recent games and 20% of Wolves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Wolves cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Tottenham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolves beat Tottenham 0-2 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.13 xG and Wolves 1.13 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Tottenham fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Wolves outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 1.12 / defence 1.18 against Wolves attack 0.74 / defence 0.89, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tottenham 35% | Draw 31% | Wolves 34%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Wolves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 57%, Wolves 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tottenham's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wolves's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tottenham 1.71 PPG, Wolves 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolves win broke the near-deadlock. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Wolves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.