Tottenham 1-2 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tottenham at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tottenham vs Liverpool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Liverpool travel to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium to take on Tottenham. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 November 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tottenham stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tottenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tottenham have posted 8W 0D 2L at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Tottenham are significantly better at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Liverpool — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Liverpool's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Tottenham are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Tottenham, 0 for Liverpool and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Tottenham in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Liverpool in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tottenham 44% versus Liverpool 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tottenham 58% | Liverpool 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 2.07 xG and Liverpool 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 1.352 / defence 0.930 | Liverpool attack 0.973 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.146. Tottenham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.352 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Tottenham games / 50 Liverpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tottenham 60% | Draw 22% | Liverpool 17%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Liverpool 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Tottenham (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tottenham are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Tottenham 50% | Liverpool 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tottenham vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tottenham 60% | Draw 22% | Liverpool 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Tottenham 2.07 / Liverpool 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Tottenham attack 1.352 / def 0.930 | Liverpool attack 0.973 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Tottenham xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Liverpool xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tottenham vs Liverpool kick off?
Tottenham vs Liverpool kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What was the final score in Tottenham vs Liverpool?
Tottenham 1 - 2 Liverpool.
Where is Tottenham vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What competition is Tottenham vs Liverpool part of?
Tottenham vs Liverpool is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives Tottenham a 60% chance of winning, Liverpool a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Tottenham and Liverpool will score (BTTS).
Will Tottenham vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Liverpool?
Record (2 meetings): Tottenham 0W | Draws 2 | Liverpool 0W.
What form are Tottenham and Liverpool in?
Tottenham (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Liverpool (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tottenham's attack rating (1.35) and Liverpool's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Liverpool's attack versus Tottenham's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.46
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Tottenham xG
Total xG
3.10
1.04
Liverpool xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
13%
7.90
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
2%
45.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Tottenham and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Tottenham and 1.04 for Liverpool, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs Liverpool?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tottenham come into this having played 50 games, going 29W 7D 14L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Tottenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Liverpool sit at 2.16 PPG from 50 outings (32W 12D 6L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Liverpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tottenham on 1.88 PPG, Liverpool on 2.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Tottenham's home form reads 17W 1D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Liverpool have taken 1.88 points per game from 24 outings (13W 6D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Tottenham are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 2.34 scored and 0.82 conceded. Tottenham's scoring rate against Liverpool's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Liverpool in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tottenham
Blended
Liverpool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tottenham and Liverpool in coming into this match?
Tottenham have gone 29W 7D 14L in their last 50 games (1.88 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 32W 12D 6L in their last 50 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tottenham at home or Liverpool away?
Tottenham's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tottenham at home: 2.17 PPG; Liverpool away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Tottenham or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Liverpool in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tottenham and Liverpool runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2025, when Liverpool won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tottenham's record when hosting Liverpool specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Tottenham
3
Draws
6
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Liverpool?
From 10 meetings on record, Tottenham have won 1, Liverpool have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tottenham and Liverpool last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Liverpool 1-1 Tottenham.
Who has won more matches between Tottenham and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tottenham 46%, Liverpool 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Tottenham and 67% for Liverpool. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tottenham keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Liverpool in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tottenham home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tottenham play Liverpool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Tottenham's recent matches and 50% of Liverpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tottenham vs Liverpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Tottenham's matches and 67% of Liverpool's.
Shock result as Liverpool defy the odds to beat Tottenham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Tottenham 1-2 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 2.07 xG and Liverpool 1.04 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Tottenham fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Liverpool outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 1.35 / defence 0.93 against Liverpool attack 0.97 / defence 0.94, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tottenham 60% | Draw 22% | Liverpool 17%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Liverpool win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 58%, Liverpool 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tottenham's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Liverpool's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tottenham 1.88 PPG, Liverpool 2.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liverpool win broke the near-deadlock. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.