Nottingham Forest 3-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 45%, yet in-form Fulham provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nottingham Forest vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 31 as Nottingham Forest welcome Fulham to The City Ground. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Nottingham Forest have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Nottingham Forest's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at The City Ground this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fulham — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fulham's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Fulham's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Nottingham Forest's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nottingham Forest register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Fulham in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Fulham, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Nottingham Forest.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2023, ended 0–5 with Fulham winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fulham have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Nottingham Forest trading profile (68 games, 34 at home): BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Fulham trading profile (68 games, 34 at away): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 56% versus Fulham 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 47% | Fulham 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.68 xG and Fulham 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.810 / defence 0.951 | Fulham attack 0.871 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.535. Fulham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Nottingham Forest's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Nottingham Forest games / 68 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 45% | Draw 27% | Fulham 28%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Fulham 3.57. Nottingham Forest hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nottingham Forest as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fulham (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nottingham Forest 60% | Fulham 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Apr 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 45% | Draw 27% | Fulham 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.68 / Fulham 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.810 / def 0.951 | Fulham attack 0.871 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.535 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Fulham xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Fulham kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Fulham kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Nottingham Forest 3 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Fulham part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 45% chance of winning, Fulham a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Fulham?
Record (5 meetings): Nottingham Forest 1W | Draws 0 | Fulham 4W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Fulham in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Fulham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nottingham Forest's attack rating (0.81) and Fulham's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
45%
2.20
27%
3.70
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.95
1.27
Fulham xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
5%
19.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.27 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nottingham Forest's recent record stands at 15W 19D 34L from 68 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Fulham, meanwhile, have gone 26W 13D 29L across 68 games — 1.34 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fulham by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nottingham Forest heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nottingham Forest have managed 12W 10D 12L from 34 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Nottingham Forest are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fulham's away record stands at 9W 7D 18L across 34 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.49 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Fulham in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 15W 19D 34L in their last 68 games (0.94 PPG), while Fulham have gone 26W 13D 29L in their last 68 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Fulham away?
Nottingham Forest's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.35 PPG; Fulham away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Dec 2023, when Fulham won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nottingham Forest's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Nottingham Forest
1
Draws
7
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Fulham?
From 10 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 2, Fulham have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Nottingham Forest 0-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 62%, Fulham 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Nottingham Forest) and 62% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Fulham in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Nottingham Forest's games and 56% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 62% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Nottingham Forest cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fulham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat Fulham 3-1 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.68 xG and Fulham 1.27 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Nottingham Forest beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.81 / defence 0.95 against Fulham attack 0.87 / defence 1.21, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 45% | Draw 27% | Fulham 28%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 47%, Fulham 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Fulham's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Nottingham Forest winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Fulham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.