Nottingham Forest 1-1 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The City Ground plays host to Nottingham Forest versus Bournemouth in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 17 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nottingham Forest's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Nottingham Forest haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at The City Ground, Nottingham Forest have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bournemouth have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bournemouth haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Bournemouth away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Nottingham Forest, 1.30 for Bournemouth — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Nottingham Forest register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Bournemouth in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Bournemouth hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bournemouth have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Nottingham Forest half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Bournemouth half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nottingham Forest 66% and Bournemouth 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 55% | Bournemouth 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.68 xG and Bournemouth 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.945 / defence 1.043 | Bournemouth attack 0.933 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.759 / away 1.492. Data: 38 Nottingham Forest games / 38 Bournemouth games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 43% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 33%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Bournemouth 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nottingham Forest are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nottingham Forest 70% | Bournemouth 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 43% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.68 / Bournemouth 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.945 / def 1.043 | Bournemouth attack 0.933 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.759 / away 1.492 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Bournemouth xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth?
Nottingham Forest 1 - 1 Bournemouth.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 43% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth?
Record (6 meetings): Nottingham Forest 0W | Draws 2 | Bournemouth 4W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nottingham Forest's attack rating (0.94) and Bournemouth's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bournemouth's attack (0.93x) against Nottingham Forest's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
43%
2.31
24%
4.25
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
3.13
1.45
Bournemouth xG
2.31
43%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
10%
9.88
6%
16.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.6 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.45 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Nottingham Forest have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 9W 9D 20L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. Nottingham Forest haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Bournemouth's form line: 13W 9D 16L from 38 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. Bournemouth haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Nottingham Forest against 1.26 for Bournemouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nottingham Forest have posted 1.05 PPG from 19 outings (5W 5D 9L).
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 6W 3D 10L from 19 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.42 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nottingham Forest have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Bournemouth in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Pre-Season
Bournemouth
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 9W 9D 20L in their last 38 games (0.95 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 13W 9D 16L in their last 38 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Bournemouth away?
Bournemouth's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.05 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bournemouth won 5-0 on 25 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nottingham Forest have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bournemouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Nottingham Forest
4
Draws
6
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth?
From 10 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 0, Bournemouth have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Nottingham Forest 1-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Nottingham Forest, 68% for Bournemouth — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Nottingham Forest and 79% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Bournemouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Nottingham Forest's games and 68% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Nottingham Forest's matches and 79% of Bournemouth's.
Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The City Ground, Regular Season - 1, as Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.68 xG and Bournemouth 1.45 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Bournemouth attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 43% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 33%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 55%, Bournemouth 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Bournemouth's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 0.95 PPG, Bournemouth 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bournemouth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.