Newcastle vs Everton – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Newcastle at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Newcastle vs Everton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Newcastle host Everton at St. James' Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 2 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Newcastle — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Newcastle have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at St. James' Park, Newcastle have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Everton's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Newcastle 1.20 PPG, Everton 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Newcastle have won 4, Everton 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 2–3 with Everton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Newcastle trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Everton trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 67% versus Everton 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 64% | Everton 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.40 xG and Everton 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 0.997 / defence 1.090 | Everton attack 0.942 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.269. Data: 45 Newcastle games / 45 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newcastle 39% | Draw 27% | Everton 34%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Everton 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Newcastle as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Newcastle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Newcastle 90% | Everton 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Monday 2 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 39% | Draw 27% | Everton 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Newcastle 1.40 / Everton 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 0.997 / def 1.090 | Everton attack 0.942 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Everton xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newcastle vs Everton kick off?
Newcastle vs Everton is scheduled to kick off at 20:00 on Monday 2 November 2026 at St. James' Park.
Where is Newcastle vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Everton part of?
Newcastle vs Everton is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 39% chance of winning, Everton a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Newcastle and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Newcastle vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Everton?
Record (10 meetings): Newcastle 4W | Draws 2 | Everton 4W.
What form are Newcastle and Everton in?
Newcastle (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Everton (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Newcastle's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Everton's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Newcastle's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
39%
2.56
27%
3.76
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Newcastle xG
Total xG
2.71
1.30
Everton xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
8%
11.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.30 for Everton, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Newcastle have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 16W 9D 20L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Newcastle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Everton's form line: 15W 14D 16L from 45 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Newcastle on 1.27 PPG, Everton on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Newcastle have posted 1.68 PPG from 22 outings (11W 4D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Newcastle are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Everton have gone 7W 8D 7L from 22 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Newcastle are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.22 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Newcastle have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Early Season
Everton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newcastle and Everton in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 16W 9D 20L in their last 45 games (1.27 PPG), while Everton have gone 15W 14D 16L in their last 45 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Everton away?
Newcastle's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 1.68 PPG; Everton away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Newcastle or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Everton in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2023, when Newcastle won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Newcastle's record when hosting Everton specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Newcastle
2
Draws
4
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, Newcastle have won 4, Everton have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Newcastle 2-3 Everton.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Newcastle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Everton see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 77%, Everton 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 77% (Newcastle) and 36% (Everton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newcastle play Everton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Newcastle's games and 50% of Everton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Newcastle vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Newcastle's matches and 36% of Everton's.
Do Newcastle and Everton tend to score early?
Newcastle have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Everton in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.