Newcastle 0-1 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Newcastle at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Newcastle vs Everton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Newcastle host Everton at St. James' Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Newcastle — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at St. James' Park, Newcastle have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at St. James' Park.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Everton's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Newcastle are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Newcastle have won 3, Everton 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Newcastle trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Everton trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 56% versus Everton 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 67% | Everton 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.67 xG and Everton 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.531 / defence 0.792 | Everton attack 0.839 / defence 0.744. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.374. Newcastle carry an above-average attack strength of 1.531 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Everton's defence strength of 0.744 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Newcastle's defence rating of 0.792 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 75 Newcastle games / 75 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newcastle 55% | Draw 24% | Everton 20%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Everton 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Newcastle (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Newcastle as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Newcastle 50% | Everton 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 55% | Draw 24% | Everton 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Newcastle 1.67 / Everton 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 1.531 / def 0.792 | Everton attack 0.839 / def 0.744 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Everton xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newcastle vs Everton kick off?
Newcastle vs Everton kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 May 2025 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Everton?
Newcastle 0 - 1 Everton.
Where is Newcastle vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Everton part of?
Newcastle vs Everton is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 55% chance of winning, Everton a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Newcastle and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Newcastle vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Everton?
Record (7 meetings): Newcastle 3W | Draws 2 | Everton 2W.
What form are Newcastle and Everton in?
Newcastle (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Everton (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Newcastle's attacking strength (1.53x league average) is weighed against Everton's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Newcastle's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.12
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Newcastle xG
Total xG
2.58
0.91
Everton xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
4%
25.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.5 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Newcastle and 0.91 for Everton, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Everton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 75 outings, Newcastle have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 38W 12D 25L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Everton's form line: 23W 24D 28L from 75 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Newcastle are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Everton.
Venue Form
On home soil, Newcastle have posted 2.11 PPG from 37 outings (24W 6D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Newcastle are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Everton have gone 10W 11D 16L from 37 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newcastle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Newcastle are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.08 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Current Season
Everton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newcastle and Everton in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 38W 12D 25L in their last 75 games (1.68 PPG), while Everton have gone 23W 24D 28L in their last 75 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Everton away?
Newcastle's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 2.11 PPG; Everton away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Newcastle or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Everton in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2023, when Newcastle won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Newcastle's record when hosting Everton specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Newcastle
2
Draws
4
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, Newcastle have won 4, Everton have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Newcastle 2-3 Everton.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 51%, Everton 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Newcastle) and 38% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Everton in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newcastle play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Newcastle's recent matches and 43% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Newcastle vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Newcastle's recent games and 38% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Everton defy the odds to beat Newcastle 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Newcastle 0-1 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 38, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.67 xG and Everton 0.91 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Newcastle fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.53 / defence 0.79 against Everton attack 0.84 / defence 0.74, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 55% | Draw 24% | Everton 20%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Everton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 67%, Everton 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Newcastle arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Everton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.