Leeds 3-1 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leeds at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leeds vs Nottingham Forest fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nottingham Forest make the trip to Elland Road to face Leeds in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 6 February 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Leeds's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Leeds, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Leeds have posted 4W 3D 3L at Elland Road — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nottingham Forest have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Leeds against 1.10 for Nottingham Forest. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Leeds 1W, Nottingham Forest 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 1–3 with Nottingham Forest winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Leeds — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leeds 48% versus Nottingham Forest 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leeds 53% | Nottingham Forest 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leeds 1.38 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leeds attack 1.001 / defence 1.173 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.905 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.263. Data: 24 Leeds games / 62 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leeds 35% | Draw 32% | Nottingham Forest 33%. Fair-value odds: Leeds 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Nottingham Forest 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Leeds as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Leeds if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Leeds 80% | Nottingham Forest 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leeds vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Elland Road • Kick-off: Friday 6 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leeds 35% | Draw 32% | Nottingham Forest 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Leeds 1.38 / Nottingham Forest 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Leeds attack 1.001 / def 1.173 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.905 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Leeds (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Leeds xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Nottingham Forest xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leeds vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Leeds vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 6 February 2026 at Elland Road.
What was the final score in Leeds vs Nottingham Forest?
Leeds 3 - 1 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Leeds vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Elland Road.
What competition is Leeds vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Leeds vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Leeds vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Leeds a 35% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Leeds the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leeds vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Leeds and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Leeds vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Nottingham Forest?
Record (3 meetings): Leeds 1W | Draws 0 | Nottingham Forest 2W.
What form are Leeds and Nottingham Forest in?
Leeds (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Leeds's attack at 1.00x the league average against Nottingham Forest's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nottingham Forest's attack (0.91x) against Leeds's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 24/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leeds Win
35%
2.84
32%
3.16
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Leeds xG
Total xG
2.72
1.34
Nottingham Forest xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
9%
10.86
8%
12.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leeds vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Leeds and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Leeds and 1.34 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Leeds vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Leeds come into this having played 62 games, going 31W 18D 13L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Leeds is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nottingham Forest sit at 1.47 PPG from 62 outings (26W 13D 23L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for Leeds against 1.47 for Nottingham Forest. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Leeds's home form reads 21W 7D 3L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.26 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Leeds are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Nottingham Forest have taken 1.52 points per game from 31 outings (14W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leeds come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Leeds are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.32 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leeds
Blended
Nottingham Forest
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leeds and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Leeds have gone 31W 18D 13L in their last 62 games (1.79 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 26W 13D 23L in their last 62 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leeds at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Leeds's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leeds at home: 2.26 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Leeds or Nottingham Forest been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Nottingham Forest in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Leeds have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leeds have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nottingham Forest — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Leeds
0
Draws
2
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Nottingham Forest?
From 5 meetings on record, Leeds have won 3, Nottingham Forest have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leeds and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Nottingham Forest 0-1 Leeds.
Who has won more matches between Leeds and Nottingham Forest?
Leeds have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Leeds are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leeds 48%, Nottingham Forest 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Leeds and 58% for Nottingham Forest. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Leeds keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Nottingham Forest in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leeds home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leeds play Nottingham Forest?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Leeds's recent matches and 48% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leeds vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Leeds's matches and 58% of Nottingham Forest's.
Do Leeds and Nottingham Forest tend to score early?
Leeds have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Nottingham Forest in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Leeds cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nottingham Forest.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leeds beat Nottingham Forest 3-1 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 1.38 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.34 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Leeds beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 1.00 / defence 1.17 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.91 / defence 0.93, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leeds 35% | Draw 32% | Nottingham Forest 33%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 53%, Nottingham Forest 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leeds's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leeds 1.79 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leeds win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.