Ipswich 2-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ipswich vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Sunderland travel to Portman Road to take on Ipswich. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ipswich stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Ipswich haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Portman Road, Ipswich have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Portman Road.
Sunderland — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sunderland haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Sunderland away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ipswich at 1.90 PPG versus Sunderland's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Ipswich, 1 for Sunderland and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 2–1 with Ipswich winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ipswich trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Sunderland trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 53% versus Sunderland 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 53% | Sunderland 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.31 xG and Sunderland 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Sunderland attack 1.043 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.184. Data: 0 Ipswich games / 38 Sunderland games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ipswich 33% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 38%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Sunderland 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 50% | Sunderland 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Sunderland | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 33% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Ipswich 1.31 / Sunderland 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Sunderland attack 1.043 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Sunderland xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Sunderland kick off?
Ipswich vs Sunderland kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Sunderland?
Ipswich 2 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Ipswich vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Sunderland part of?
Ipswich vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 33% chance of winning, Sunderland a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ipswich and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Sunderland?
Record (4 meetings): Ipswich 2W | Draws 1 | Sunderland 1W.
What form are Ipswich and Sunderland in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Ipswich (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ipswich's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
33%
2.99
28%
3.54
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.73
1.42
Sunderland xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
8%
12.36
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.42 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ipswich's recent record stands at 20W 11D 7L from 38 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-W in the last five. Ipswich haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 12L across 38 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five. Sunderland haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ipswich by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sunderland heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 11W 6D 1L from 18 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sunderland's away record stands at 5W 6D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ipswich are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.11 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Pre-Season
Sunderland
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 20W 11D 7L in their last 38 games (1.87 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 14W 12D 12L in their last 38 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Sunderland away?
Ipswich's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 2.17 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Sunderland in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ipswich and Sunderland runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ipswich have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Ipswich's record when hosting Sunderland specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Ipswich
1
Draws
1
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Sunderland?
From 5 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 3, Sunderland have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Ipswich 2-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Sunderland?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 44%, Sunderland 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ipswich) and 44% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Ipswich keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sunderland in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Ipswich's recent matches and 50% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ipswich vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ipswich's recent games and 44% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ipswich and Sunderland tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ipswich defy the odds to beat Sunderland 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Sunderland 2-1 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.31 xG and Sunderland 1.42 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Sunderland attack 1.04 / defence 1.00, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 33% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 38%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ipswich win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 53%, Sunderland 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Sunderland's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.42. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.