Ipswich 1-1 Leicester – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Leicester at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ipswich face Leicester.

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Fixture Analysis

Ipswich welcome Leicester to Portman Road in Premier League (matchday 10). Kick-off is Saturday 2 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Ipswich stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Ipswich's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Ipswich are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Leicester — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Leicester away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ipswich 0.70 PPG, Leicester 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Ipswich, 0 for Leicester and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Jan 2024, ended Ipswich 1–1 Leicester — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Ipswich in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

Leicester in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ipswich 62% and Leicester 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 58% | Leicester 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.52 xG and Leicester 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 0.700 / defence 1.177 | Leicester attack 1.111 / defence 1.417. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.425. Ipswich's attack rating of 0.700 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.52. Leicester's defence rating of 1.417 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ipswich's projected output up. Data: built from Ipswich's last 9 games and Leicester's last 9.

Result probabilities: Ipswich 31% | Draw 24% | Leicester 45%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Leicester 2.22. Leicester hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.52 / 1.86) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Leicester at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leicester offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ipswich's last 10 home games and Leicester's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ipswich 50% (last 10 home games) | Leicester 50% (last 10 away games).

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