Fulham 1-1 West Ham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs West Ham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Craven Cottage plays host to Fulham versus West Ham in Premier League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fulham have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Craven Cottage, Fulham have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
West Ham (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. West Ham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
West Ham away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Fulham against 1.00 for West Ham. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Fulham 2W, West Ham 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with Fulham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
West Ham half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 49% versus West Ham 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 61% | West Ham 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.59 xG and West Ham 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.026 / defence 0.963 | West Ham attack 1.041 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.521. Data: 41 Fulham games / 41 West Ham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 37% | Draw 28% | West Ham 34%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | West Ham 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 50% | West Ham 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 37% | Draw 28% | West Ham 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 65% | xG Fulham 1.59 / West Ham 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.026 / def 0.963 | West Ham attack 1.041 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.521 • Poisson stance: Fulham (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.52
West Ham xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs West Ham kick off?
Fulham vs West Ham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs West Ham?
Fulham 1 - 1 West Ham.
Where is Fulham vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs West Ham part of?
Fulham vs West Ham is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 37% chance of winning, West Ham a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Fulham and West Ham will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and West Ham?
Record (4 meetings): Fulham 2W | Draws 0 | West Ham 2W.
What form are Fulham and West Ham in?
Fulham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. West Ham (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fulham's attack rating (1.03) and West Ham's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — West Ham's attack (1.04x) against Fulham's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
37%
2.68
28%
3.51
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.12
1.52
West Ham xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
8%
12.32
7%
14.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Fulham and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Fulham and 1.52 for West Ham, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fulham come into this having played 41 games, going 14W 9D 18L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, West Ham sit at 1.34 PPG from 41 outings (15W 10D 16L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for West Ham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Fulham against 1.34 for West Ham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fulham's home form reads 10W 2D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, West Ham have taken 1.30 points per game from 20 outings (8W 2D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Fulham are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.56 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham in 68%.
Last 41 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Early Season
West Ham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and West Ham in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 14W 9D 18L in their last 41 games (1.24 PPG), while West Ham have gone 15W 10D 16L in their last 41 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or West Ham away?
Fulham's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.60 PPG; West Ham away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fulham won 5-0 on 10 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against West Ham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fulham
1
Draws
4
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and West Ham?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 3, West Ham have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and West Ham last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Fulham 0-1 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and West Ham?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 40%, West Ham 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Fulham and 80% for West Ham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play West Ham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Fulham's games and 70% of West Ham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs West Ham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Fulham's matches and 80% of West Ham's.
Fulham and West Ham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham and West Ham finished level at 1-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.59 xG and West Ham 1.52 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against West Ham attack 1.04 / defence 1.03, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 37% | Draw 28% | West Ham 34%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 61%, West Ham 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
West Ham's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.24 PPG, West Ham 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. West Ham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.