Fulham 2-2 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Crystal Palace fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crystal Palace make the trip to Craven Cottage to face Fulham in Premier League, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 May 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fulham's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Fulham at Craven Cottage this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Crystal Palace have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Crystal Palace have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fulham lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 3–0 with Fulham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fulham — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Crystal Palace — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at away): BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 54% versus Crystal Palace 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 58% | Crystal Palace 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.34 xG and Crystal Palace 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.945 / defence 1.175 | Crystal Palace attack 0.845 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.335. Data: 36 Fulham games / 74 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 37% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 37%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Crystal Palace 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fulham 60% | Crystal Palace 40%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 37% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Fulham 1.34 / Crystal Palace 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.945 / def 1.175 | Crystal Palace attack 0.845 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Crystal Palace xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Fulham vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Fulham 2 - 2 Crystal Palace.
Where is Fulham vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Crystal Palace part of?
Fulham vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 37% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Fulham and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Crystal Palace?
Record (1 meetings): Fulham 1W | Draws 0 | Crystal Palace 0W.
What form are Fulham and Crystal Palace in?
Fulham (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Crystal Palace (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fulham's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Crystal Palace's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Crystal Palace's attack (0.84x) against Fulham's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 36/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
37%
2.68
26%
3.84
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.67
1.33
Crystal Palace xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
10%
10.11
10%
10.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Fulham and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Fulham and 1.33 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fulham's recent record stands at 37W 14D 23L from 74 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have gone 22W 25D 27L across 74 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fulham by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crystal Palace heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fulham have managed 20W 7D 10L from 37 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crystal Palace's away record stands at 8W 11D 18L across 37 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fulham are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.18 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Current Season
Crystal Palace
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 37W 14D 23L in their last 74 games (1.69 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 22W 25D 27L in their last 74 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Crystal Palace away?
Fulham's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.81 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Fulham or Crystal Palace been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Crystal Palace in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fulham won 0-3 on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Crystal Palace — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fulham
4
Draws
2
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Crystal Palace?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 2, Crystal Palace have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Crystal Palace 1-1 Fulham.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 60%, Crystal Palace 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Fulham) and 43% (Crystal Palace). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Crystal Palace?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Fulham's recent matches and 46% of Crystal Palace's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Fulham's matches and 43% of Crystal Palace's.
Fulham and Crystal Palace share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 37, as Fulham and Crystal Palace drew 2-2 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.34 xG and Crystal Palace 1.33 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.94 / defence 1.18 against Crystal Palace attack 0.84 / defence 0.91, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 37% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 37%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 58%, Crystal Palace 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fulham (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.