Fulham 0-2 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crystal Palace at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Crystal Palace fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crystal Palace make the trip to Craven Cottage to face Fulham in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fulham's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham at Craven Cottage this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Crystal Palace have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Crystal Palace have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fulham lead 2W to 0W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 2–0 with Fulham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fulham — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Crystal Palace — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 59% versus Crystal Palace 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 60% | Crystal Palace 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 0.96 xG and Crystal Palace 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.936 / defence 0.986 | Crystal Palace attack 0.994 / defence 0.683. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.526. Crystal Palace's defence strength of 0.683 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 63 Fulham games / 63 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 24% | Draw 28% | Crystal Palace 49%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Crystal Palace 2.04. Crystal Palace hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Crystal Palace as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Fulham 80% | Crystal Palace 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 24% | Draw 28% | Crystal Palace 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Fulham 0.96 / Crystal Palace 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.936 / def 0.986 | Crystal Palace attack 0.994 / def 0.683 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.526 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Crystal Palace xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Fulham vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Fulham 0 - 2 Crystal Palace.
Where is Fulham vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Crystal Palace part of?
Fulham vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 24% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Fulham and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Crystal Palace?
Record (5 meetings): Fulham 2W | Draws 3 | Crystal Palace 0W.
What form are Fulham and Crystal Palace in?
Fulham (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Crystal Palace (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fulham's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Crystal Palace's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Crystal Palace's attack (0.99x) against Fulham's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
24%
4.24
28%
3.63
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.46
1.50
Crystal Palace xG
4.24
24%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
5%
18.93
19%
5.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Fulham and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Fulham and 1.50 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fulham's recent record stands at 23W 17D 23L from 63 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have gone 20W 19D 24L across 63 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Fulham against 1.25 for Crystal Palace. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fulham have managed 14W 7D 10L from 31 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crystal Palace's away record stands at 10W 10D 11L across 31 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Fulham are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.37 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Crystal Palace
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 23W 17D 23L in their last 63 games (1.37 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 20W 19D 24L in their last 63 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Crystal Palace away?
Fulham's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.58 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fulham won 0-3 on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Crystal Palace — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Fulham
4
Draws
3
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Crystal Palace?
From 9 meetings on record, Fulham have won 2, Crystal Palace have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Fulham 2-3 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Crystal Palace?
Crystal Palace have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 58%, Crystal Palace 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Fulham) and 45% (Crystal Palace).
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Crystal Palace?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Fulham's games and 58% of Crystal Palace's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Fulham's recent games and 45% of Crystal Palace's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Crystal Palace cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fulham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crystal Palace beat Fulham 0-2 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 0.96 xG and Crystal Palace 1.50 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fulham fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Crystal Palace attack 0.99 / defence 0.68, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 24% | Draw 28% | Crystal Palace 49%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 60%, Crystal Palace 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.37 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crystal Palace win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.