Fulham 2-1 Arsenal – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Arsenal (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fulham face Arsenal.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fulham and Arsenal meet at Craven Cottage in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Fulham (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham at Craven Cottage this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.
Arsenal have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Arsenal are 0.90 PPG clear of Fulham in recent Premier League fixtures (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Fulham have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Arsenal in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Fulham, 2 for Arsenal and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fulham — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Arsenal — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 53% versus Arsenal 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 63% | Arsenal 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.43 xG and Arsenal 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.159 / defence 0.957 | Arsenal attack 1.092 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.372. Arsenal's defence strength of 0.733 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Fulham games / 57 Arsenal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 38% | Draw 25% | Arsenal 38%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Arsenal 2.63. The draw (25%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 58% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 25% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: Fulham 30% | Arsenal 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Arsenal | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 38% | Draw 25% | Arsenal 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Fulham 1.43 / Arsenal 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.159 / def 0.957 | Arsenal attack 1.092 / def 0.733 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Draw (25%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Arsenal xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Arsenal kick off?
Fulham vs Arsenal kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 December 2023 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Arsenal?
Fulham 2 - 1 Arsenal.
Where is Fulham vs Arsenal being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Arsenal part of?
Fulham vs Arsenal is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Arsenal?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 38% chance of winning, Arsenal a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Arsenal?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fulham and Arsenal will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Arsenal?
Record (3 meetings): Fulham 0W | Draws 1 | Arsenal 2W.
What form are Fulham and Arsenal in?
Fulham (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Arsenal (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fulham's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Arsenal's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Arsenal's attack (1.09x) against Fulham's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
38%
2.67
25%
4.01
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.87
1.43
Arsenal xG
2.67
38%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
9%
11.17
9%
11.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Arsenal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Fulham and Arsenal expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Fulham and 1.43 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Arsenal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fulham's recent record stands at 21W 10D 26L from 57 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have gone 38W 10D 9L across 57 games — 2.18 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Arsenal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Arsenal by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fulham heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fulham have managed 13W 5D 10L from 28 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arsenal's away record stands at 17W 5D 6L across 28 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fulham are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Arsenal are on 2.18 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Arsenal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Arsenal in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 21W 10D 26L in their last 57 games (1.28 PPG), while Arsenal have gone 38W 10D 9L in their last 57 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Arsenal away?
Arsenal's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.57 PPG; Arsenal away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Fulham or Arsenal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Arsenal in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Arsenal have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arsenal won 0-3 on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Arsenal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fulham
2
Draws
5
Arsenal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Arsenal?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 1, Arsenal have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Arsenal last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Arsenal 3-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Arsenal?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 54%, Arsenal 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Fulham) and 43% (Arsenal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arsenal in 50%; Fulham have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Arsenal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Arsenal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Fulham's recent matches and 36% of Arsenal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Arsenal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Fulham's matches and 43% of Arsenal's.
Shock result as Fulham defy the odds to beat Arsenal 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Arsenal 2-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.43 xG and Arsenal 1.43 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.16 / defence 0.96 against Arsenal attack 1.09 / defence 0.73, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 38% | Draw 25% | Arsenal 38%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 63%, Arsenal 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Arsenal's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Fulham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arsenal (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.