Everton 1-0 West Ham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Everton take on West Ham.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Everton welcome West Ham to Goodison Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 September 2022 at 14:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Everton at Goodison Park this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Everton are significantly better at Goodison Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, West Ham have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. West Ham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, West Ham have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Everton) versus 0.80 (West Ham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Everton, 2 for West Ham and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with West Ham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Everton in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
West Ham in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 54% versus West Ham 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 50% | West Ham 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 0.98 xG and West Ham 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.687 / defence 0.877 | West Ham attack 0.849 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.230. Everton's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Everton games / 44 West Ham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 34% | Draw 35% | West Ham 31%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | West Ham 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Everton 40% | West Ham 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 14:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 34% | Draw 35% | West Ham 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Everton 0.98 / West Ham 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.687 / def 0.877 | West Ham attack 0.849 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Everton xG
Expected Goals
0.92
West Ham xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs West Ham kick off?
Everton vs West Ham kicked off at 14:15 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs West Ham?
Everton 1 - 0 West Ham.
Where is Everton vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs West Ham part of?
Everton vs West Ham is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 34% chance of winning, West Ham a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Everton vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Everton and West Ham will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and West Ham?
Record (2 meetings): Everton 0W | Draws 0 | West Ham 2W.
What form are Everton and West Ham in?
Everton (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. West Ham (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.69) and West Ham's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, West Ham's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.93
35%
2.83
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Everton xG
Total xG
1.90
0.92
West Ham xG
2.93
34%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 13.7 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Everton and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Everton and 0.92 for West Ham, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton come into this having played 44 games, going 11W 10D 23L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, West Ham sit at 1.36 PPG from 44 outings (17W 9D 18L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for West Ham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 0.98 PPG, West Ham on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Everton's home form reads 9W 4D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Everton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, West Ham have taken 1.23 points per game from 22 outings (8W 3D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.43 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Early Season
West Ham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and West Ham in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 11W 10D 23L in their last 44 games (0.98 PPG), while West Ham have gone 17W 9D 18L in their last 44 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or West Ham away?
Everton's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.41 PPG; West Ham away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Everton's record when hosting West Ham specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Everton
3
Draws
5
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and West Ham?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 2, West Ham have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and West Ham last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when West Ham 2-1 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and West Ham?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 46%, West Ham 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Everton) and 50% (West Ham).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 32% of games; West Ham in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play West Ham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Everton's recent matches and 46% of West Ham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs West Ham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Everton's recent games and 50% of West Ham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Everton edge out West Ham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat West Ham 1-0 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 0.98 xG and West Ham 0.92 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. West Ham landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.69 / defence 0.88 against West Ham attack 0.85 / defence 0.88, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 34% | Draw 35% | West Ham 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Everton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 50%, West Ham 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
West Ham's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 0.98 PPG, West Ham 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.