Everton 1-3 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton host Sunderland at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Everton at Hill Dickinson Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Sunderland have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Sunderland have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Everton at 1.20 PPG versus Sunderland's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Everton register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sunderland in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Everton have won 0, Sunderland 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Everton in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sunderland in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 46% versus Sunderland 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 40% | Sunderland 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.71 xG and Sunderland 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 1.033 / defence 1.119 | Sunderland attack 0.872 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.225. Data: 74 Everton games / 36 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 48% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 25%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Sunderland 4.00. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Everton 60% | Sunderland 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Sunderland | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 48% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Everton 1.71 / Sunderland 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 1.033 / def 1.119 | Sunderland attack 0.872 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Everton (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Sunderland xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Sunderland kick off?
Everton vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What was the final score in Everton vs Sunderland?
Everton 1 - 3 Sunderland.
Where is Everton vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Sunderland part of?
Everton vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 48% chance of winning, Sunderland a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Everton and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Sunderland?
Record (1 meetings): Everton 0W | Draws 1 | Sunderland 0W.
What form are Everton and Sunderland in?
Everton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Sunderland (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Everton's attack at 1.03x the league average against Sunderland's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.78
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Everton xG
Total xG
2.91
1.20
Sunderland xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
5%
21.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Everton and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Everton and 1.20 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Everton's recent record stands at 24W 25D 25L from 74 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 27W 25D 22L across 74 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.31 PPG, Sunderland on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Everton have managed 11W 14D 12L from 37 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sunderland's away record stands at 11W 12D 14L across 37 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Everton are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.07 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 24W 25D 25L in their last 74 games (1.31 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 27W 25D 22L in their last 74 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Sunderland away?
Everton's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.27 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Everton or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sunderland in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton and Sunderland runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Everton
1
Draws
1
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Sunderland?
From 2 meetings on record, Everton have won 0, Sunderland have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Everton 1-3 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 49%, Sunderland 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Everton) and 43% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 30% of games; Sunderland in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Everton's recent matches and 46% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Everton's recent games and 43% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton and Sunderland tend to score early?
Everton have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sunderland cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Everton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Everton 1-3 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.71 xG and Sunderland 1.20 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sunderland outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 1.03 / defence 1.12 against Sunderland attack 0.87 / defence 1.12, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 48% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 25%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Sunderland win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 40%, Sunderland 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sunderland's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.31 PPG, Sunderland 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.