Everton 3-0 Chelsea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chelsea at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Chelsea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Everton and Chelsea meet at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Everton have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Everton's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Hill Dickinson Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Chelsea's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Chelsea away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Everton, 4 for Chelsea and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 0–2 with Chelsea winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Everton — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Chelsea — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 43% versus Chelsea 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 35% | Chelsea 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.09 xG and Chelsea 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.854 / defence 1.034 | Chelsea attack 1.367 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.267. Chelsea have an above-average attack strength of 1.367 — the away xG of 1.79 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 68 Everton games / 68 Chelsea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 21% | Draw 27% | Chelsea 52%. Fair-value odds: Everton 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | Chelsea 1.92. Chelsea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chelsea at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chelsea if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Everton 50% | Chelsea 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Chelsea | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 21% | Draw 27% | Chelsea 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Everton 1.09 / Chelsea 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.854 / def 1.034 | Chelsea attack 1.367 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Chelsea (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Chelsea xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Chelsea kick off?
Everton vs Chelsea kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What was the final score in Everton vs Chelsea?
Everton 3 - 0 Chelsea.
Where is Everton vs Chelsea being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Chelsea part of?
Everton vs Chelsea is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Chelsea?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 21% chance of winning, Chelsea a 52% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chelsea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Chelsea?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Everton and Chelsea will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Chelsea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Chelsea?
Record (9 meetings): Everton 2W | Draws 3 | Chelsea 4W.
What form are Everton and Chelsea in?
Everton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Chelsea (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.85x the league average against Chelsea's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chelsea's attack (1.37x) against Everton's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.79.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chelsea Win
21%
4.70
27%
3.76
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Everton xG
Total xG
2.88
1.79
Chelsea xG
4.70
21%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
17%
6.00
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
4%
28.17
18%
5.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Chelsea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Everton and Chelsea expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Everton and 1.79 for Chelsea, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Chelsea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Everton's recent record stands at 23W 22D 23L from 68 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Chelsea, meanwhile, have gone 33W 18D 17L across 68 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Everton against 1.72 for Chelsea. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Everton have managed 10W 13D 11L from 34 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chelsea's away record stands at 15W 8D 11L across 34 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Chelsea are on 1.72 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chelsea in 62%.
Last 68 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Current Season
Chelsea
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Chelsea in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 23W 22D 23L in their last 68 games (1.34 PPG), while Chelsea have gone 33W 18D 17L in their last 68 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Chelsea away?
Chelsea's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.26 PPG; Chelsea away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Everton or Chelsea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Chelsea in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chelsea won 6-0 on 15 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Chelsea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Everton
3
Draws
4
Chelsea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Chelsea?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 3, Chelsea have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Chelsea last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Everton 3-0 Chelsea.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Chelsea?
Chelsea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Chelsea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 47%, Chelsea 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Everton) and 62% (Chelsea).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Chelsea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Chelsea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Everton's recent matches and 62% of Chelsea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Chelsea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Everton's recent games and 62% of Chelsea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton and Chelsea tend to score early?
Everton have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Chelsea in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Everton run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Chelsea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Chelsea 3-0 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.09 xG and Chelsea 1.79 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Everton beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chelsea landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.85 / defence 1.03 against Chelsea attack 1.37 / defence 0.92, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 21% | Draw 27% | Chelsea 52%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Everton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 35%, Chelsea 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chelsea's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.34 PPG, Chelsea 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Chelsea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.