Chelsea 1-0 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chelsea at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chelsea vs Everton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stamford Bridge plays host to Chelsea versus Everton in Premier League (matchday 34). Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 12:30 UK time.
Form
Chelsea (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Chelsea's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Chelsea are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Everton have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Everton have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Chelsea's favour (1.70 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Dec 2024, ended Chelsea 0–0 Everton — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Chelsea half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Everton half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chelsea 65% versus Everton 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chelsea 66% | Everton 39%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Chelsea surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Everton have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Everton surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Chelsea recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chelsea 1.25 xG and Everton 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chelsea attack 1.149 / defence 0.811 | Everton attack 0.741 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.427. Everton bring a tight defence (rating 0.751, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Chelsea's projected output down. Everton's attack rating of 0.741 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Chelsea's last 71 games and Everton's last 71.
Result probabilities: Chelsea 46% | Draw 29% | Everton 25%. Fair-value odds: Chelsea 2.20 | Draw 3.44 | Everton 3.94. Chelsea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chelsea as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chelsea if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Chelsea 60% (last 10 home games) | Everton 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chelsea vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, matchday 34 | Venue: Stamford Bridge • Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chelsea 46% | Draw 29% | Everton 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Chelsea 1.25 / Everton 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Chelsea attack 1.149 / def 0.811 | Everton attack 0.741 / def 0.751 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Chelsea (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Chelsea xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Everton xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chelsea vs Everton FAQs
What time does Chelsea vs Everton kick off?
Chelsea vs Everton kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Stamford Bridge.
What was the final score in Chelsea vs Everton?
Chelsea 1 - 0 Everton.
Where is Chelsea vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Stamford Bridge.
What competition is Chelsea vs Everton part of?
Chelsea vs Everton is a Premier League fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Chelsea vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Chelsea a 46% chance of winning, Everton a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chelsea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Chelsea and Everton will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Chelsea vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Chelsea's attack rating (1.15) and Everton's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Everton's attack (0.74x) against Chelsea's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from Chelsea's last 71 games and Everton's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chelsea Win
46%
2.20
29%
3.44
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Chelsea xG
Total xG
2.11
0.86
Everton xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
7%
13.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chelsea vs Everton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chelsea vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Chelsea and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Chelsea and 0.86 for Everton, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Chelsea vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 71 outings, Chelsea have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 34W 18D 19L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Everton's form line: 21W 23D 27L from 71 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Chelsea are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Everton.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Chelsea have posted 1.97 PPG from their last 35 home games (20W 9D 6L).
On the road, Everton have gone 9W 11D 15L from their last 35 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chelsea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chelsea are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.04 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chelsea have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chelsea
Current Season
Everton
Current Season
Chelsea (Home) vs Everton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chelsea
Current Season
Everton
Current Season
❓ Chelsea vs Everton Form FAQs
What form are Chelsea and Everton in coming into this match?
Chelsea have gone 34W 18D 19L in their last 71 games (1.69 PPG), while Everton have gone 21W 23D 27L in their last 71 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chelsea at home or Everton away?
Chelsea's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chelsea at home: 1.97 PPG; Everton away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Chelsea or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Everton in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chelsea won Chelsea 6-0 Everton on 15 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chelsea have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Everton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Chelsea
2
Draws
3
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Chelsea vs Everton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chelsea and Everton?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Chelsea have won 5, Everton have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chelsea and Everton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Everton 0-2 Chelsea.
Who has won more matches between Chelsea and Everton?
Chelsea have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chelsea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chelsea 60%, Everton 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Chelsea) and 37% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Everton in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chelsea home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chelsea vs Everton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chelsea and Everton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Chelsea's recent matches and 43% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Chelsea and Everton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Chelsea's recent games and 37% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chelsea and Everton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Chelsea's recent matches and 63% of Everton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chelsea edge out Everton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chelsea beat Everton 1-0 at Stamford Bridge, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chelsea 1.25 xG and Everton 0.86 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Everton landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chelsea attack 1.15 / defence 0.81 against Everton attack 0.74 / defence 0.75, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chelsea 46% | Draw 29% | Everton 25%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chelsea 66%, Everton 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chelsea's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Everton's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Chelsea arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Chelsea (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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