Burnley 1-1 Wolves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 44%, yet in-form Wolves provide a compelling counter-argument — this Burnley vs Wolves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 38 as Burnley welcome Wolves to Turf Moor. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Burnley have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Turf Moor, Burnley have gone 0W 5D 5L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Wolves — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Wolves's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wolves — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Burnley, 1 for Wolves and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 3–2 with Burnley winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Burnley trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Wolves trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 43% versus Wolves 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 41% | Wolves 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.37 xG and Wolves 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.729 / defence 1.302 | Wolves attack 0.623 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.224. Burnley's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Wolves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Burnley's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Burnley games / 75 Wolves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 44% | Draw 30% | Wolves 26%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Wolves 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wolves (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 50% | Wolves 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Wolves | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 44% | Draw 30% | Wolves 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Burnley 1.37 / Wolves 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.729 / def 1.302 | Wolves attack 0.623 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Burnley (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Wolves xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Wolves kick off?
Burnley vs Wolves kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Wolves?
Burnley 1 - 1 Wolves.
Where is Burnley vs Wolves being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Wolves part of?
Burnley vs Wolves is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Wolves?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 44% chance of winning, Wolves a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Wolves?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Burnley and Wolves will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Wolves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Wolves?
Record (5 meetings): Burnley 2W | Draws 2 | Wolves 1W.
What form are Burnley and Wolves in?
Burnley (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Wolves (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Burnley's attack at 0.73x the league average against Wolves's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolves's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.32
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.37
0.99
Wolves xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
7%
15.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Wolves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Burnley and Wolves expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Burnley and 0.99 for Wolves, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Wolves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burnley come into this having played 75 games, going 27W 23D 25L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Wolves sit at 0.81 PPG from 75 outings (15W 16D 44L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five.
Burnley carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Wolves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Burnley's home form reads 13W 14D 10L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolves have taken 0.70 points per game from 37 outings (6W 8D 23L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Wolves are on 1.07 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Wolves
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Wolves in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 27W 23D 25L in their last 75 games (1.39 PPG), while Wolves have gone 15W 16D 44L in their last 75 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Wolves away?
Burnley's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.43 PPG; Wolves away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Burnley or Wolves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Wolves in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Burnley's record when hosting Wolves specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Burnley
3
Draws
1
Wolves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Wolves?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 2, Wolves have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Wolves last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Burnley 1-1 Wolves.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Wolves?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Wolves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 35%, Wolves 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Burnley) and 60% (Wolves).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 40% of games; Wolves in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Wolves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Wolves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Burnley's recent matches and 49% of Wolves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Wolves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Burnley's recent games and 60% of Wolves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Wolves tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Wolves in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burnley and Wolves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley and Wolves finished level at 1-1 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 38, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.37 xG and Wolves 0.99 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.73 / defence 1.30 against Wolves attack 0.62 / defence 1.28, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 44% | Draw 30% | Wolves 26%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 41%, Wolves 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Wolves's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wolves (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.