Burnley 0-1 Manchester City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Manchester City (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Burnley face Manchester City.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burnley and Manchester City meet at Turf Moor in Premier League, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Burnley's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Burnley's home record at Turf Moor: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Manchester City (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Manchester City have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Manchester City arrive in superior form — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Manchester City, who have claimed 5 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–5 with Manchester City winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Manchester City have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Burnley — key trading statistics (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Manchester City — key trading statistics (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 43% versus Manchester City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 41% | Manchester City 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.81 xG and Manchester City 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.724 / defence 1.313 | Manchester City attack 1.192 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.249. Burnley's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Manchester City's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 33 Burnley games / 70 Manchester City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 13% | Draw 24% | Manchester City 63%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 7.69 | Draw 4.17 | Manchester City 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Manchester City (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Manchester City are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 50% | Manchester City 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Manchester City | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Apr 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 13% | Draw 24% | Manchester City 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG Burnley 0.81 / Manchester City 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.724 / def 1.313 | Manchester City attack 1.192 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Manchester City (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Manchester City xG
49%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Manchester City kick off?
Burnley vs Manchester City kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Manchester City?
Burnley 0 - 1 Manchester City.
Where is Burnley vs Manchester City being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Manchester City part of?
Burnley vs Manchester City is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Manchester City?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 13% chance of winning, Manchester City a 63% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Manchester City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Manchester City?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Burnley and Manchester City will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Manchester City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Manchester City?
Record (5 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 0 | Manchester City 5W.
What form are Burnley and Manchester City in?
Burnley (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Manchester City (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Burnley's attack at 0.72x the league average against Manchester City's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Manchester City's attack (1.19x) against Burnley's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.96.
These ratings are built from 33/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Manchester City Win
13%
7.62
24%
4.12
63%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.77
1.96
Manchester City xG
7.62
13%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.60
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
14%
7.07
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
2%
53.85
28%
3.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Manchester City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Burnley and Manchester City expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Burnley and 1.96 for Manchester City, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Manchester City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 70 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 27W 21D 22L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Manchester City's form line: 41W 15D 14L from 70 games, 1.97 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Manchester City are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.50 PPG from 34 outings (13W 12D 9L).
On the road, Manchester City have gone 15W 9D 10L from 34 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Manchester City are on 1.96 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Manchester City in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Manchester City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Manchester City in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 27W 21D 22L in their last 70 games (1.46 PPG), while Manchester City have gone 41W 15D 14L in their last 70 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Manchester City away?
Manchester City's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.50 PPG; Manchester City away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Burnley or Manchester City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Manchester City in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Manchester City have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Manchester City won 5-1 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Manchester City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Burnley
0
Draws
6
Manchester City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Manchester City?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, Manchester City have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Manchester City last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Burnley 0-1 Manchester City.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Manchester City?
Manchester City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Manchester City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 35%, Manchester City 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Burnley) and 53% (Manchester City).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Manchester City in 38%; Burnley have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Manchester City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Manchester City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Burnley's recent matches and 50% of Manchester City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Manchester City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Burnley's recent games and 53% of Manchester City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Manchester City tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Manchester City in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Manchester City edge out Burnley 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Manchester City beat Burnley 0-1 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.81 xG and Manchester City 1.96 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Burnley fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Manchester City landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.72 / defence 1.31 against Manchester City attack 1.19 / defence 0.79, drawn from 33/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 13% | Draw 24% | Manchester City 63%, with Manchester City to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 41%, Manchester City 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Manchester City's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Manchester City arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.46. Form held, and they took the win. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Manchester City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.