Brighton 1-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brighton at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brighton vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Brighton host Burnley at The American Express Community Stadium in Premier League (matchday 16). Kick-off is Saturday 9 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Brighton have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Brighton's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Brighton are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Burnley stand at 2W 0D 8L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Burnley have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Brighton have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 100% of Brighton's games and 60% of Burnley's (from Brighton's last 10 home games and Burnley's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Brighton, 1 for Burnley and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Feb 2022, ended Brighton 0–3 Burnley — a Burnley win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Brighton in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Burnley in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brighton 72% and Burnley 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Brighton 70% | Burnley 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brighton 1.98 xG and Burnley 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brighton attack 1.037 / defence 1.000 | Burnley attack 0.653 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.396. Burnley's attack rating of 0.653 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Data: built from Brighton's last 53 games and Burnley's last 15.
Result probabilities: Brighton 62% | Draw 21% | Burnley 17%. Fair-value odds: Brighton 1.61 | Draw 4.73 | Burnley 5.99. The model has a clear lean to Brighton (62%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brighton at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Brighton's last 10 home games and Burnley's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Brighton 100% (last 10 home games) | Burnley 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brighton vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, matchday 16 | Venue: The American Express Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brighton 62% | Draw 21% | Burnley 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Brighton 1.98 / Burnley 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Brighton attack 1.037 / def 1.000 | Burnley attack 0.653 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Brighton (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Brighton xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Burnley xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brighton vs Burnley FAQs
What time does Brighton vs Burnley kick off?
Brighton vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 9 December 2023 at The American Express Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Brighton vs Burnley?
Brighton 1 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Brighton vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at The American Express Community Stadium.
What competition is Brighton vs Burnley part of?
Brighton vs Burnley is a Premier League fixture (matchday 16) (England).
Who is favourite to win Brighton vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Brighton a 62% chance of winning, Burnley a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Brighton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brighton vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Brighton and Burnley will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Brighton vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Brighton's attack rating (1.04) and Burnley's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Brighton's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Brighton's last 53 games and Burnley's last 15 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brighton Win
62%
1.61
21%
4.73
17%
5.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Brighton xG
Total xG
2.89
0.91
Burnley xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
5.99
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
2%
43.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brighton vs Burnley Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brighton vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Brighton and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Brighton and 0.91 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Brighton vs Burnley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brighton's recent record stands at 25W 12D 16L from 53 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 28W 11D 14L across 53 games — 1.79 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brighton on 1.64 PPG, Burnley on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Brighton have managed 14W 6D 6L from their last 26 home games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 12W 8D 6L across their last 26 away games, a 1.69 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Brighton are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.66 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brighton have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Defensively: Burnley in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brighton
Blended
Burnley
Blended
Brighton (Home) vs Burnley (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brighton
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Brighton vs Burnley Form FAQs
What form are Brighton and Burnley in coming into this match?
Brighton have gone 25W 12D 16L in their last 53 games (1.64 PPG), while Burnley have gone 28W 11D 14L in their last 53 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brighton at home or Burnley away?
Brighton's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brighton at home: 1.85 PPG; Burnley away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Brighton or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brighton have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Burnley in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brighton have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Feb 2022, when Burnley won Brighton 0-3 Burnley.
Brighton's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Brighton
2
Draws
1
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Brighton vs Burnley H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brighton and Burnley?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Brighton have won 3, Burnley have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brighton and Burnley last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Burnley 0-2 Brighton.
Who has won more matches between Brighton and Burnley?
Brighton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brighton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brighton 62%, Burnley 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Brighton) and 50% (Burnley). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brighton keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Burnley in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brighton home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brighton vs Burnley Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brighton and Burnley matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Brighton's games and 58% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Brighton and Burnley matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Brighton's matches and 50% of Burnley's.
Do Brighton and Burnley matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Brighton's recent matches and 69% of Burnley's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brighton and Burnley share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The American Express Community Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Brighton and Burnley drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brighton 1.98 xG and Burnley 0.91 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Brighton fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brighton attack 1.04 / defence 1.00 against Burnley attack 0.65 / defence 1.11, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brighton 62% | Draw 21% | Burnley 17%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brighton 70%, Burnley 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brighton's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Burnley's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brighton 1.64 PPG, Burnley 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Brighton (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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