Arsenal 3-1 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arsenal at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arsenal vs Tottenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Tottenham travel to Emirates Stadium to take on Arsenal. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arsenal stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Arsenal have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arsenal's home record at Emirates Stadium: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tottenham — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Tottenham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Tottenham have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Tottenham are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 2.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Arsenal, 1 for Tottenham and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2022, ended 0–3 with Tottenham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Arsenal in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Tottenham in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arsenal 44% versus Tottenham 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal 62% | Tottenham 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal 1.52 xG and Tottenham 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal attack 1.167 / defence 0.991 | Tottenham attack 1.151 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.220. Data: 45 Arsenal games / 45 Tottenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arsenal 39% | Draw 27% | Tottenham 34%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Tottenham 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arsenal are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Tottenham (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arsenal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Arsenal 80% | Tottenham 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Emirates Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal 39% | Draw 27% | Tottenham 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Arsenal 1.52 / Tottenham 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal attack 1.167 / def 0.991 | Tottenham attack 1.151 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Arsenal xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Tottenham xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal vs Tottenham kick off?
Arsenal vs Tottenham kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Emirates Stadium.
What was the final score in Arsenal vs Tottenham?
Arsenal 3 - 1 Tottenham.
Where is Arsenal vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Emirates Stadium.
What competition is Arsenal vs Tottenham part of?
Arsenal vs Tottenham is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal a 39% chance of winning, Tottenham a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Arsenal and Tottenham will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Tottenham?
Record (2 meetings): Arsenal 1W | Draws 0 | Tottenham 1W.
What form are Arsenal and Tottenham in?
Arsenal (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Tottenham (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Arsenal's attack rating (1.17) and Tottenham's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus Arsenal's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
39%
2.54
27%
3.69
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Arsenal xG
Total xG
2.91
1.39
Tottenham xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
7%
13.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Arsenal and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Arsenal and 1.39 for Tottenham, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Arsenal's recent record stands at 28W 3D 14L from 45 games, a 1.93 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Arsenal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have gone 27W 7D 11L across 45 games — 1.96 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Tottenham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Arsenal on 1.93 PPG, Tottenham on 1.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Arsenal have managed 16W 2D 4L from 22 games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tottenham's away record stands at 10W 6D 6L across 22 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Arsenal are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.93 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Tottenham in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal
Early Season
Tottenham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Arsenal have gone 28W 3D 14L in their last 45 games (1.93 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 27W 7D 11L in their last 45 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arsenal at home or Tottenham away?
Arsenal's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arsenal at home: 2.27 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Arsenal or Tottenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Tottenham in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Arsenal and Tottenham runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Arsenal have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2022, when Tottenham won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Arsenal's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Arsenal
1
Draws
1
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Tottenham?
From 10 meetings on record, Arsenal have won 8, Tottenham have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal and Tottenham last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Tottenham 1-4 Arsenal.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal and Tottenham?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arsenal 59%, Tottenham 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Arsenal) and 46% (Tottenham).
On the defensive side: Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Tottenham in 41%; Tottenham in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal play Tottenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Arsenal's recent matches and 41% of Tottenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arsenal vs Tottenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Arsenal's recent games and 46% of Tottenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Arsenal cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Tottenham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Tottenham 3-1 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 1.52 xG and Tottenham 1.39 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Arsenal beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.17 / defence 0.99 against Tottenham attack 1.15 / defence 0.80, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal 39% | Draw 27% | Tottenham 34%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 62%, Tottenham 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arsenal's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Tottenham's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arsenal 1.93 PPG, Tottenham 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arsenal win broke the near-deadlock. Arsenal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm. Tottenham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.