Tranmere 2-1 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Tranmere take on Bradford.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prenton Park plays host to Tranmere versus Bradford in League Two, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Tuesday 23 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tranmere have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Tranmere, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tranmere at Prenton Park this season: 5W 0D 3L from 8 home games — 1.88 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prenton Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bradford (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bradford away from home this season: 2W 3D 3L from 8 away games — 1.12 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Tranmere, 1.20 for Bradford — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Tranmere half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 53% of games.
Bradford half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tranmere 18% versus Bradford 71%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Tranmere 18% | Bradford 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tranmere 0.88 xG and Bradford 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tranmere attack 0.806 / defence 0.960 | Bradford attack 0.831 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.214. Data: 17 Tranmere games / 17 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tranmere 29% | Draw 37% | Bradford 34%. Fair-value odds: Tranmere 3.45 | Draw 2.70 | Bradford 2.94. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Tranmere 12% | Bradford 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tranmere vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Prenton Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tranmere 29% | Draw 37% | Bradford 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 39% | xG Tranmere 0.88 / Bradford 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Tranmere attack 0.806 / def 0.960 | Bradford attack 0.831 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Tranmere xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Bradford xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tranmere vs Bradford kick off?
Tranmere vs Bradford kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 November 2021 at Prenton Park.
What was the final score in Tranmere vs Bradford?
Tranmere 2 - 1 Bradford.
Where is Tranmere vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Prenton Park.
What competition is Tranmere vs Bradford part of?
Tranmere vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Tranmere vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Tranmere a 29% chance of winning, Bradford a 34% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Tranmere vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Tranmere and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Tranmere vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tranmere and Bradford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tranmere and Bradford in?
Tranmere (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Bradford (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Tranmere's attack rating (0.81) and Bradford's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bradford's attack (0.83x) against Tranmere's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.44
37%
2.69
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Tranmere xG
Total xG
1.85
0.97
Bradford xG
3.44
29%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
11%
9.07
14%
7.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 15.2 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tranmere vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Tranmere and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Tranmere and 0.97 for Bradford, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Tranmere vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tranmere come into this having played 17 games, going 6W 5D 6L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Tranmere is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bradford sit at 1.35 PPG from 17 outings (5W 8D 4L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Tranmere against 1.35 for Bradford. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Tranmere's home form reads 5W 0D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Tranmere are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bradford have taken 1.12 points per game from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tranmere come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tranmere are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.35 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tranmere have seen both teams score in 18% of their recent games; Bradford in 71%.
Defensively: Tranmere have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tranmere
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tranmere and Bradford in coming into this match?
Tranmere have gone 6W 5D 6L in their last 17 games (1.35 PPG), while Bradford have gone 5W 8D 4L in their last 17 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tranmere at home or Bradford away?
Tranmere's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tranmere at home: 1.88 PPG; Bradford away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Tranmere or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tranmere have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Bradford in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tranmere have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bradford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Tranmere
1
Draws
4
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tranmere and Bradford?
From 8 meetings on record, Tranmere have won 3, Bradford have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tranmere and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Bradford 0-1 Tranmere.
Who has won more matches between Tranmere and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tranmere tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Bradford see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 12% (Tranmere) and 50% (Bradford) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Tranmere and 38% for Bradford.
On the defensive side: Tranmere keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Tranmere have failed to score in 38% of games; Bradford in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tranmere home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tranmere play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of Tranmere's recent matches and 50% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tranmere vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Tranmere's recent games and 38% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tranmere and Bradford tend to score early?
Tranmere have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Bradford in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tranmere defy the odds to beat Bradford 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tranmere beat Bradford 2-1 at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 18, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 0.88 xG and Bradford 0.97 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Tranmere beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 0.81 / defence 0.96 against Bradford attack 0.83 / defence 1.05, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tranmere 29% | Draw 37% | Bradford 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Tranmere win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 18%, Bradford 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tranmere's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Bradford's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tranmere 1.35 PPG, Bradford 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tranmere win broke the near-deadlock. Tranmere (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Bradford (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.