Tranmere 0-1 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Accrington ST at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tranmere vs Accrington ST encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Accrington ST travel to Prenton Park to take on Tranmere. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 17 February 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Tranmere — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Tranmere's home record at Prenton Park: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Accrington ST's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Accrington ST — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Tranmere have won 1, Accrington ST 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Tranmere in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tranmere 55% versus Accrington ST 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tranmere 49% | Accrington ST 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tranmere 1.00 xG and Accrington ST 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tranmere attack 0.872 / defence 1.282 | Accrington ST attack 0.956 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.168. Data: 77 Tranmere games / 76 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tranmere 26% | Draw 27% | Accrington ST 47%. Fair-value odds: Tranmere 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Accrington ST 2.13. Accrington ST hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Accrington ST are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Accrington ST offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Tranmere 60% | Accrington ST 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tranmere vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Prenton Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tranmere 26% | Draw 27% | Accrington ST 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Tranmere 1.00 / Accrington ST 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Tranmere attack 0.872 / def 1.282 | Accrington ST attack 0.956 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Tranmere xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Accrington ST xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tranmere vs Accrington ST kick off?
Tranmere vs Accrington ST kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at Prenton Park.
What was the final score in Tranmere vs Accrington ST?
Tranmere 0 - 1 Accrington ST.
Where is Tranmere vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Prenton Park.
What competition is Tranmere vs Accrington ST part of?
Tranmere vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Tranmere vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Tranmere a 26% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tranmere vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Tranmere and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Tranmere vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tranmere and Accrington ST?
Record (5 meetings): Tranmere 1W | Draws 2 | Accrington ST 2W.
What form are Tranmere and Accrington ST in?
Tranmere (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Accrington ST (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Tranmere's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Accrington ST's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Tranmere's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 77/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
26%
3.79
27%
3.75
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Tranmere xG
Total xG
2.43
1.43
Accrington ST xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
6%
15.83
17%
5.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tranmere vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Tranmere and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Tranmere and 1.43 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Tranmere vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Tranmere have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 21W 22D 33L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Accrington ST's form line: 24W 21D 31L from 76 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tranmere on 1.12 PPG, Accrington ST on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Tranmere have posted 1.29 PPG from 38 outings (12W 13D 13L).
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 11W 7D 20L from 38 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Tranmere are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.16 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 76 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tranmere
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tranmere and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Tranmere have gone 21W 22D 33L in their last 76 games (1.12 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 24W 21D 31L in their last 76 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tranmere at home or Accrington ST away?
Tranmere's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tranmere at home: 1.29 PPG; Accrington ST away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2024, when Accrington ST won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tranmere's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Tranmere
2
Draws
3
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tranmere and Accrington ST?
From 6 meetings on record, Tranmere have won 1, Accrington ST have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tranmere and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Tranmere 0-1 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Tranmere and Accrington ST?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tranmere are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tranmere 50%, Accrington ST 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Tranmere) and 47% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Tranmere have failed to score in 29% of games; Accrington ST in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tranmere home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tranmere play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Tranmere's recent matches and 47% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tranmere vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Tranmere's recent games and 47% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tranmere and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Tranmere have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Accrington ST edge out Tranmere 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Tranmere 0-1 at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 33, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 1.00 xG and Accrington ST 1.43 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tranmere fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 0.87 / defence 1.28 against Accrington ST attack 0.96 / defence 0.90, drawn from 77/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tranmere 26% | Draw 27% | Accrington ST 47%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 49%, Accrington ST 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tranmere's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Accrington ST's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tranmere 1.12 PPG, Accrington ST 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Accrington ST win broke the near-deadlock. Tranmere (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward. Accrington ST (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.