Sutton Utd 0-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Sutton Utd take on Stockport County.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 40 as Sutton Utd welcome Stockport County to VBS Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Sutton Utd have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sutton Utd have posted 7W 2D 1L at VBS Community Stadium — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at VBS Community Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Sutton Utd are significantly better at VBS Community Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Stockport County — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in League Two this season, Stockport County have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Sutton Utd) versus 1.90 (Stockport County). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sutton Utd, 1 for Stockport County and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with Stockport County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sutton Utd trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Stockport County trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sutton Utd 44% versus Stockport County 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sutton Utd 38% | Stockport County 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sutton Utd 0.97 xG and Stockport County 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sutton Utd attack 1.012 / defence 0.841 | Stockport County attack 1.029 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.048. Data: 85 Sutton Utd games / 39 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sutton Utd 34% | Draw 35% | Stockport County 31%. Fair-value odds: Sutton Utd 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Stockport County 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sutton Utd 40% | Stockport County 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sutton Utd vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: VBS Community Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sutton Utd 34% | Draw 35% | Stockport County 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Sutton Utd 0.97 / Stockport County 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Sutton Utd attack 1.012 / def 0.841 | Stockport County attack 1.029 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Sutton Utd xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Stockport County xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sutton Utd vs Stockport County kick off?
Sutton Utd vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 7 April 2023 at VBS Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Sutton Utd vs Stockport County?
Sutton Utd 0 - 1 Stockport County.
Where is Sutton Utd vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at VBS Community Stadium.
What competition is Sutton Utd vs Stockport County part of?
Sutton Utd vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Sutton Utd vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Sutton Utd a 34% chance of winning, Stockport County a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sutton Utd vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Sutton Utd and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Sutton Utd vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sutton Utd and Stockport County?
Record (1 meetings): Sutton Utd 0W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 1W.
What form are Sutton Utd and Stockport County in?
Sutton Utd (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Stockport County (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sutton Utd's attack rating (1.01) and Stockport County's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Sutton Utd's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 85/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.95
35%
2.82
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Sutton Utd xG
Total xG
1.87
0.91
Stockport County xG
2.95
34%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
12%
8.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 13.9 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sutton Utd vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Sutton Utd and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Sutton Utd and 0.91 for Stockport County, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Sutton Utd vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sutton Utd's recent record stands at 15W 12D 12L from 39 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five.
Stockport County, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 11L across 39 games — 1.64 PPG, with D-W-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sutton Utd on 1.46 PPG, Stockport County on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sutton Utd have managed 11W 4D 4L from 19 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Sutton Utd are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stockport County's away record stands at 9W 2D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sutton Utd come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sutton Utd are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.33 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sutton Utd
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sutton Utd and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Sutton Utd have gone 15W 12D 12L in their last 39 games (1.46 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 18W 10D 11L in their last 39 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sutton Utd at home or Stockport County away?
Sutton Utd's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sutton Utd at home: 1.95 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Sutton Utd or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sutton Utd have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Stockport County in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Stockport County have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Dec 2023, when Stockport County won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sutton Utd's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sutton Utd
0
Draws
4
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sutton Utd and Stockport County?
From 4 meetings on record, Sutton Utd have won 0, Stockport County have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sutton Utd and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Sutton Utd 1-3 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Sutton Utd and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Stockport County see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sutton Utd 47%, Stockport County 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Sutton Utd) and 47% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Sutton Utd keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Stockport County in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sutton Utd home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sutton Utd play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Sutton Utd's recent matches and 47% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sutton Utd vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Sutton Utd's recent games and 47% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sutton Utd and Stockport County tend to score early?
Sutton Utd have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stockport County defy the odds to beat Sutton Utd 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Sutton Utd 0-1 at VBS Community Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sutton Utd 0.97 xG and Stockport County 0.91 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sutton Utd fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sutton Utd attack 1.01 / defence 0.84 against Stockport County attack 1.03 / defence 0.83, drawn from 85/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sutton Utd 34% | Draw 35% | Stockport County 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Stockport County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sutton Utd 38%, Stockport County 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sutton Utd's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stockport County's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sutton Utd 1.46 PPG, Stockport County 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Stockport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.