Stockport County 1-1 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 3 as Stockport County welcome Bradford to Edgeley Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 15 August 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Stockport County have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Stockport County have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stockport County have posted 4W 5D 1L at Edgeley Park — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bradford stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bradford have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bradford's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stockport County 1.30 PPG, Bradford 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stockport County, 0 for Bradford and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Stockport County in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Bradford in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 46% versus Bradford 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 38% | Bradford 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.05 xG and Bradford 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 0.898 / defence 0.877 | Bradford attack 0.924 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.095. Data: 48 Stockport County games / 48 Bradford games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Stockport County 39% | Draw 31% | Bradford 30%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Bradford 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 40% | Bradford 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (48 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Aug 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 39% | Draw 31% | Bradford 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Stockport County 1.05 / Bradford 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 0.898 / def 0.877 | Bradford attack 0.924 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Bradford xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Bradford kick off?
Stockport County vs Bradford kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 15 August 2023 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Bradford?
Stockport County 1 - 1 Bradford.
Where is Stockport County vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Bradford part of?
Stockport County vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 39% chance of winning, Bradford a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Stockport County and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Bradford?
Record (2 meetings): Stockport County 1W | Draws 1 | Bradford 0W.
What form are Stockport County and Bradford in?
Stockport County (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Bradford (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (0.90) and Bradford's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (48/48 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
39%
2.60
31%
3.19
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Stockport County xG
Total xG
1.93
0.89
Bradford xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
11%
9.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.89 for Bradford, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stockport County's recent record stands at 23W 14D 13L from 50 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stockport County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bradford, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 12L across 50 games — 1.64 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bradford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stockport County on 1.66 PPG, Bradford on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stockport County have managed 12W 9D 3L from 24 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bradford's away record stands at 11W 6D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Stockport County are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.30 scored and 0.96 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Bradford in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Early Season
Bradford
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Bradford in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 23W 14D 13L in their last 50 games (1.66 PPG), while Bradford have gone 22W 16D 12L in their last 50 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Bradford away?
Stockport County's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.88 PPG; Bradford away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Bradford in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stockport County and Bradford runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bradford have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Stockport County's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stockport County
3
Draws
2
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Bradford?
From 6 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 1, Bradford have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Bradford 1-0 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 42%, Bradford 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Stockport County) and 42% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Bradford in 42%; Bradford in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Stockport County's recent matches and 38% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Stockport County's recent games and 42% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Bradford tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Bradford in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County and Bradford share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County and Bradford finished level at 1-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 3, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.05 xG and Bradford 0.89 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.90 / defence 0.88 against Bradford attack 0.92 / defence 0.85, drawn from 48/48 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 39% | Draw 31% | Bradford 30%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 38%, Bradford 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Bradford's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.66 PPG, Bradford 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.