Stevenage 3-0 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Sutton Utd encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Sutton Utd travel to The Lamex Stadium to take on Stevenage. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 4 October 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Stevenage — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Lamex Stadium, Stevenage have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Lamex Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sutton Utd stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sutton Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sutton Utd's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Stevenage are in the better shape of the two on current League Two data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Stevenage, 1 for Sutton Utd and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stevenage in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Sutton Utd in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 44% versus Sutton Utd 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 46% | Sutton Utd 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.41 xG and Sutton Utd 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 1.046 / defence 0.783 | Sutton Utd attack 0.845 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.058. Stevenage's defence rating of 0.783 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Stevenage games / 57 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 54% | Draw 27% | Sutton Utd 18%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Sutton Utd 5.56. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stevenage at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 40% | Sutton Utd 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 54% | Draw 27% | Sutton Utd 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 38% | xG Stevenage 1.41 / Sutton Utd 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 1.046 / def 0.783 | Sutton Utd attack 0.845 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Sutton Utd xG
38%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Stevenage vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 4 October 2022 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Sutton Utd?
Stevenage 3 - 0 Sutton Utd.
Where is Stevenage vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Sutton Utd part of?
Stevenage vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 54% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Stevenage and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Sutton Utd?
Record (2 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 1 | Sutton Utd 1W.
What form are Stevenage and Sutton Utd in?
Stevenage (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Sutton Utd (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stevenage's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Sutton Utd's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Sutton Utd's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.66
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.11
0.70
Sutton Utd xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
4%
22.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.0 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.70 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Sutton Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stevenage come into this having played 57 games, going 19W 15D 23L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sutton Utd sit at 1.58 PPG from 57 outings (26W 12D 19L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Sutton Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.26 PPG, Sutton Utd on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Stevenage's home form reads 14W 6D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sutton Utd have taken 1.07 points per game from 28 outings (8W 6D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sutton Utd's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.42 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Sutton Utd in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Sutton Utd
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 19W 15D 23L in their last 57 games (1.26 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 26W 12D 19L in their last 57 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Sutton Utd away?
Stevenage's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.71 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Sutton Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Sutton Utd in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2022, when Stevenage won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stevenage's record when hosting Sutton Utd specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Stevenage
2
Draws
1
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Sutton Utd?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Sutton Utd have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Sutton Utd 0-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 43%, Sutton Utd 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Stevenage) and 43% (Sutton Utd).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sutton Utd in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Sutton Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Stevenage's recent matches and 50% of Sutton Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Stevenage's recent games and 43% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stevenage run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sutton Utd.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Sutton Utd 3-0 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.41 xG and Sutton Utd 0.70 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.05 / defence 0.78 against Sutton Utd attack 0.84 / defence 1.13, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 54% | Draw 27% | Sutton Utd 18%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 46%, Sutton Utd 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.26 PPG, Sutton Utd 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.