Stevenage 4-2 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Salford City at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Salford City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Salford City make the trip to The Lamex Stadium to face Stevenage in League Two, Regular Season - 46. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stevenage have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Stevenage at The Lamex Stadium this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Salford City (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 League Two outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Salford City's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Salford City are 1.00 PPG clear of Stevenage in recent League Two fixtures (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Stevenage have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Salford City in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stevenage lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Salford City winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Salford City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 40% versus Salford City 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 42% | Salford City 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 0.77 xG and Salford City 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.863 / defence 1.243 | Salford City attack 0.887 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.024 / away 1.116. Data: 45 Stevenage games / 45 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 23% | Draw 30% | Salford City 47%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | Salford City 2.13. Salford City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Salford City as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Salford City if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 30% | Salford City 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 23% | Draw 30% | Salford City 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Stevenage 0.77 / Salford City 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.863 / def 1.243 | Salford City attack 0.887 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.024 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Salford City (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Salford City xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Salford City kick off?
Stevenage vs Salford City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Salford City?
Stevenage 4 - 2 Salford City.
Where is Stevenage vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Salford City part of?
Stevenage vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 23% chance of winning, Salford City a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Stevenage and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Salford City?
Record (1 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 0 | Salford City 1W.
What form are Stevenage and Salford City in?
Stevenage (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Salford City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (0.86) and Salford City's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Salford City's attack (0.89x) against Stevenage's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
23%
4.37
30%
3.31
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.00
1.23
Salford City xG
4.37
23%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
7%
14.95
22%
4.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 16.7 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.23 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stevenage's recent record stands at 10W 14D 21L from 45 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Salford City, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 13L across 45 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Salford City by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stevenage heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 8W 6D 8L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salford City's away record stands at 9W 4D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Stevenage are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.29 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Salford City in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Salford City in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 10W 14D 21L in their last 45 games (0.98 PPG), while Salford City have gone 19W 13D 13L in their last 45 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Salford City away?
Salford City's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.36 PPG; Salford City away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Salford City in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Salford City have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Salford City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Stevenage
0
Draws
3
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Salford City?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Salford City have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 25 March 2023, when Stevenage 1-3 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Salford City?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 41%, Salford City 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Stevenage) and 36% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Salford City in 41%; Stevenage have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Stevenage's recent matches and 46% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Stevenage's recent games and 36% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Salford City tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Salford City in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stevenage cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Salford City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Salford City 4-2 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 0.77 xG and Salford City 1.23 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.86 / defence 1.24 against Salford City attack 0.89 / defence 0.87, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 23% | Draw 30% | Salford City 47%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Stevenage win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 42%, Salford City 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Salford City's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Stevenage winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.