Stevenage 1-2 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Lamex Stadium plays host to Stevenage versus Mansfield Town in League Two, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 13 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League Two record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 1L across 7 games at The Lamex Stadium this term (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Stevenage are significantly better at The Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Mansfield Town (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 League Two outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Mansfield Town have posted 0W 2D 4L from 6 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Stevenage half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Mansfield Town half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 33% versus Mansfield Town 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 47% | Mansfield Town 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.14 xG and Mansfield Town 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.872 / defence 1.060 | Mansfield Town attack 0.630 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 1.179. Mansfield Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Stevenage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Stevenage games / 15 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 41% | Draw 36% | Mansfield Town 23%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.44 | Draw 2.78 | Mansfield Town 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stevenage at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 43% | Mansfield Town 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 41% | Draw 36% | Mansfield Town 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Stevenage 1.14 / Mansfield Town 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.872 / def 1.060 | Mansfield Town attack 0.630 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.044 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Mansfield Town xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Stevenage vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 November 2021 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Stevenage 1 - 2 Mansfield Town.
Where is Stevenage vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Mansfield Town part of?
Stevenage vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 41% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 23% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Stevenage and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Mansfield Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stevenage and Mansfield Town in?
Stevenage (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Mansfield Town (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Mansfield Town's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (0.63x) against Stevenage's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
41%
2.42
36%
2.76
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Stevenage xG
Total xG
1.93
0.79
Mansfield Town xG
2.42
41%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
46%
2.20
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
7%
13.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 11.4 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.79 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stevenage's recent record stands at 3W 5D 7L from 15 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mansfield Town, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 7L across 15 games — 0.93 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Stevenage against 0.93 for Mansfield Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 1W 4D 1L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mansfield Town's away record stands at 0W 2D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mansfield Town's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 0.93 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town in 60%.
Last 15 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Mansfield Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 3W 5D 7L in their last 15 games (0.93 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 3W 5D 7L in their last 15 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Mansfield Town away?
Stevenage's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.17 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Stevenage
4
Draws
3
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Mansfield Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Mansfield Town have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Stevenage 1-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Mansfield Town see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 50%, Mansfield Town 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Stevenage and 33% for Mansfield Town.
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stevenage have failed to score in 33% of games; Mansfield Town in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Mansfield Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stevenage's recent matches and 50% of Mansfield Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Stevenage's recent games and 33% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mansfield Town defy the odds to beat Stevenage 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Stevenage 1-2 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.14 xG and Mansfield Town 0.79 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mansfield Town outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Mansfield Town attack 0.63 / defence 1.26, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 41% | Draw 36% | Mansfield Town 23%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Mansfield Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 47%, Mansfield Town 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 0.93 PPG, Mansfield Town 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mansfield Town win broke the near-deadlock. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.