Stevenage 2-0 Hartlepool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Stevenage take on Hartlepool.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hartlepool make the trip to The Lamex Stadium to face Stevenage in League Two, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stevenage have collected 1.00 PPG across 9 League Two outings this season: 2W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.78 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's home record at The Lamex Stadium: 1W 2D 1L from 4 League Two appearances (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Hartlepool's overall League Two record this term: 4W 2D 3L from 9 games (1.56 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.78 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.78 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hartlepool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hartlepool away from home this season: 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.56 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Hartlepool are 0.56 PPG clear of Stevenage in recent League Two fixtures (1.56 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hartlepool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 44% versus Hartlepool 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stevenage 33% | Hartlepool 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 0.93 xG and Hartlepool 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.861 / defence 1.312 | Hartlepool attack 0.628 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 0.919 / away 1.050. Data: 9 Stevenage games / 9 Hartlepool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 33% | Draw 38% | Hartlepool 29%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 3.03 | Draw 2.63 | Hartlepool 3.45. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 50% | Hartlepool 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Hartlepool | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 33% | Draw 38% | Hartlepool 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 38% | xG Stevenage 0.93 / Hartlepool 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.861 / def 1.312 | Hartlepool attack 0.628 / def 1.178 | league avg home 0.919 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Hartlepool xG
38%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Hartlepool kick off?
Stevenage vs Hartlepool kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Hartlepool?
Stevenage 2 - 0 Hartlepool.
Where is Stevenage vs Hartlepool being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Hartlepool part of?
Stevenage vs Hartlepool is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Hartlepool?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 33% chance of winning, Hartlepool a 29% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Hartlepool?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Stevenage and Hartlepool will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Hartlepool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Hartlepool?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stevenage and Hartlepool in?
Stevenage (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Hartlepool (all comps): 4W-2D-3L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.78 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.86x the league average against Hartlepool's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hartlepool's attack (0.63x) against Stevenage's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.04
38%
2.64
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Stevenage xG
Total xG
1.80
0.87
Hartlepool xG
3.04
33%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 14.3 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Hartlepool?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Hartlepool expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.87 for Hartlepool, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Hartlepool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stevenage come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 3D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hartlepool sit at 1.56 PPG from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Hartlepool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hartlepool carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Stevenage — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Stevenage's home form reads 1W 2D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Hartlepool have taken 0.25 points per game from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hartlepool's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Hartlepool are on 1.00 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Hartlepool in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Hartlepool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Hartlepool in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while Hartlepool have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Hartlepool away?
Stevenage's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.25 PPG; Hartlepool away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Hartlepool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hartlepool in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hartlepool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stevenage
2
Draws
0
Hartlepool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Hartlepool?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 2, Hartlepool have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Hartlepool last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2023, when Hartlepool 1-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Hartlepool?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Hartlepool see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 50%, Hartlepool 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Stevenage and 25% for Hartlepool.
On the defensive side: Hartlepool in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Hartlepool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Hartlepool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stevenage's recent matches and 25% of Hartlepool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Hartlepool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Stevenage's recent games and 25% of Hartlepool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stevenage cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hartlepool.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Hartlepool 2-0 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 0.93 xG and Hartlepool 0.87 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hartlepool landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.86 / defence 1.31 against Hartlepool attack 0.63 / defence 1.18, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 33% | Draw 38% | Hartlepool 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Stevenage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 33%, Hartlepool 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hartlepool's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hartlepool arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Stevenage winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.