Scunthorpe 0-1 Oldham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Scunthorpe take on Oldham.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 30 as Scunthorpe welcome Oldham to Sands Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Scunthorpe stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Scunthorpe at Sands Stadium this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Oldham — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Oldham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oldham's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Scunthorpe) versus 0.70 (Oldham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Scunthorpe have won 1, Oldham 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2021, ended 3–1 with Scunthorpe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Scunthorpe trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Oldham trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Scunthorpe 54% versus Oldham 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Scunthorpe 38% | Oldham 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Scunthorpe 0.95 xG and Oldham 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Scunthorpe attack 0.743 / defence 1.331 | Oldham attack 0.515 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.022 / away 1.105. Scunthorpe's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Oldham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Scunthorpe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Scunthorpe games / 26 Oldham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Scunthorpe 35% | Draw 40% | Oldham 25%. Fair-value odds: Scunthorpe 2.86 | Draw 2.50 | Oldham 4.00. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.71 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Scunthorpe 50% | Oldham 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Scunthorpe vs Oldham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Sands Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Scunthorpe 35% | Draw 40% | Oldham 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 36% | xG Scunthorpe 0.95 / Oldham 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Scunthorpe attack 0.743 / def 1.331 | Oldham attack 0.515 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.022 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Scunthorpe xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Oldham xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Scunthorpe vs Oldham kick off?
Scunthorpe vs Oldham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Sands Stadium.
What was the final score in Scunthorpe vs Oldham?
Scunthorpe 0 - 1 Oldham.
Where is Scunthorpe vs Oldham being played?
The match is being played at Sands Stadium.
What competition is Scunthorpe vs Oldham part of?
Scunthorpe vs Oldham is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Scunthorpe vs Oldham?
Our statistical model gives Scunthorpe a 35% chance of winning, Oldham a 25% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Scunthorpe vs Oldham?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Scunthorpe and Oldham will score (BTTS).
Will Scunthorpe vs Oldham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Scunthorpe and Oldham?
Record (1 meetings): Scunthorpe 1W | Draws 0 | Oldham 0W.
What form are Scunthorpe and Oldham in?
Scunthorpe (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Oldham (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Scunthorpe's attack at 0.74x the league average against Oldham's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oldham's attack versus Scunthorpe's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.82
40%
2.51
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Scunthorpe xG
Total xG
1.71
0.76
Oldham xG
2.82
35%
Home win
2.51
40%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
10%
10.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.1 | 13.7 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Scunthorpe vs Oldham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are Scunthorpe and Oldham expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Scunthorpe and 0.76 for Oldham, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Scunthorpe vs Oldham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Scunthorpe come into this having played 26 games, going 3W 9D 14L for 0.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Scunthorpe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Oldham sit at 0.73 PPG from 26 outings (4W 7D 15L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Oldham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Scunthorpe on 0.69 PPG, Oldham on 0.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Scunthorpe's home form reads 2W 4D 6L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Oldham have taken 0.83 points per game from 12 outings (2W 4D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Scunthorpe are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Oldham are on 0.85 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 26 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Scunthorpe
Blended
Oldham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Scunthorpe and Oldham in coming into this match?
Scunthorpe have gone 3W 9D 14L in their last 26 games (0.69 PPG), while Oldham have gone 4W 7D 15L in their last 26 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Scunthorpe at home or Oldham away?
Scunthorpe's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Scunthorpe at home: 0.83 PPG; Oldham away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Scunthorpe or Oldham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Scunthorpe have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Oldham in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Scunthorpe and Oldham runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Scunthorpe
0
Draws
1
Oldham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Scunthorpe and Oldham?
From 2 meetings on record, Scunthorpe have won 1, Oldham have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Scunthorpe and Oldham last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2022, when Scunthorpe 0-1 Oldham.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Scunthorpe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Oldham see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Scunthorpe 50%, Oldham 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Scunthorpe and 42% for Oldham.
On the defensive side: Oldham in 42%; Scunthorpe have failed to score in 42% of games; Oldham in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Scunthorpe home games / Oldham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Scunthorpe play Oldham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Scunthorpe's recent matches and 25% of Oldham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Scunthorpe vs Oldham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Scunthorpe's recent games and 42% of Oldham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Scunthorpe and Oldham tend to score early?
Scunthorpe have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Oldham in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Oldham defy the odds to beat Scunthorpe 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oldham beat Scunthorpe 0-1 at Sands Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Scunthorpe 0.95 xG and Oldham 0.76 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Scunthorpe fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Scunthorpe attack 0.74 / defence 1.33 against Oldham attack 0.52 / defence 1.25, drawn from 28/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Scunthorpe 35% | Draw 40% | Oldham 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Oldham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Scunthorpe 38%, Oldham 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Scunthorpe's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oldham's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Scunthorpe 0.69 PPG, Oldham 0.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oldham win broke the near-deadlock. Oldham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.