Scunthorpe 1-1 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Scunthorpe vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Bradford travel to Sands Stadium to take on Scunthorpe. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Scunthorpe stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Scunthorpe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sands Stadium, Scunthorpe have gone 2W 3D 4L this season (9 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Bradford have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bradford have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bradford are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Scunthorpe in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bradford in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Scunthorpe 61% and Bradford 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Scunthorpe 44% | Bradford 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Scunthorpe 0.92 xG and Bradford 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Scunthorpe attack 0.755 / defence 1.199 | Bradford attack 0.839 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.069 / away 1.199. Scunthorpe's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Scunthorpe games / 18 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Scunthorpe 25% | Draw 35% | Bradford 40%. Fair-value odds: Scunthorpe 4.00 | Draw 2.86 | Bradford 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bradford are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Scunthorpe 56% | Bradford 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Scunthorpe vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Sands Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Scunthorpe 25% | Draw 35% | Bradford 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Scunthorpe 0.92 / Bradford 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Scunthorpe attack 0.755 / def 1.199 | Bradford attack 0.839 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.069 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Bradford (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Scunthorpe xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Bradford xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Scunthorpe vs Bradford kick off?
Scunthorpe vs Bradford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Sands Stadium.
What was the final score in Scunthorpe vs Bradford?
Scunthorpe 1 - 1 Bradford.
Where is Scunthorpe vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Sands Stadium.
What competition is Scunthorpe vs Bradford part of?
Scunthorpe vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Scunthorpe vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Scunthorpe a 25% chance of winning, Bradford a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Scunthorpe vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Scunthorpe and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Scunthorpe vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Scunthorpe and Bradford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Scunthorpe and Bradford in?
Scunthorpe (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Bradford (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Scunthorpe's attack at 0.76x the league average against Bradford's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Scunthorpe's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
25%
3.97
35%
2.85
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Scunthorpe xG
Total xG
2.12
1.21
Bradford xG
3.97
25%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
8%
13.26
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 14.4 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Scunthorpe vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Scunthorpe and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Scunthorpe and 1.21 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Scunthorpe vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Scunthorpe come into this having played 18 games, going 2W 7D 9L for 0.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Scunthorpe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bradford sit at 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (5W 8D 5L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bradford carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Scunthorpe — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Scunthorpe's home form reads 2W 3D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Bradford have taken 1.00 points per game from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Scunthorpe are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.33 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Scunthorpe have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Bradford in 72%.
Last 18 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Scunthorpe
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Scunthorpe and Bradford in coming into this match?
Scunthorpe have gone 2W 7D 9L in their last 18 games (0.72 PPG), while Bradford have gone 5W 8D 5L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Scunthorpe at home or Bradford away?
Scunthorpe's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Scunthorpe at home: 1.00 PPG; Bradford away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Scunthorpe
1
Draws
1
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Scunthorpe and Bradford?
From 2 meetings on record, Scunthorpe have won 0, Bradford have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Scunthorpe and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2022, when Bradford 2-1 Scunthorpe.
Who has won more matches between Scunthorpe and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Scunthorpe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bradford see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Scunthorpe 56%, Bradford 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Scunthorpe) and 44% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Scunthorpe have failed to score in 33% of games; Bradford in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Scunthorpe home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Scunthorpe play Bradford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Scunthorpe's games and 56% of Bradford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Scunthorpe vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Scunthorpe's recent games and 44% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Scunthorpe and Bradford tend to score early?
Scunthorpe have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bradford in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Scunthorpe and Bradford share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Scunthorpe and Bradford finished level at 1-1 at Sands Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Scunthorpe 0.92 xG and Bradford 1.21 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Scunthorpe attack 0.76 / defence 1.20 against Bradford attack 0.84 / defence 1.14, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Scunthorpe 25% | Draw 35% | Bradford 40%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Scunthorpe 44%, Bradford 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Scunthorpe's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Bradford's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.