Salford City 0-4 Chesterfield – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salford City at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Salford City face Chesterfield.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Salford City welcome Chesterfield to The Peninsula Stadium in League Two (matchday 26). Kick-off is Tuesday 11 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Salford City have gone 1W 5D 4L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Salford City at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Salford City are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Chesterfield stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Chesterfield's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Salford City 0.80 PPG, Chesterfield 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Salford City, 0 for Chesterfield and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended Salford City 1–1 Chesterfield — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Salford City in-play and half-time data (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Chesterfield in-play and half-time data (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 50% versus Chesterfield 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 41% | Chesterfield 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.47 xG and Chesterfield 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 1.046 / defence 1.062 | Chesterfield attack 0.830 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.058. Data: built from Salford City's last 81 games and Chesterfield's last 34.
Result probabilities: Salford City 50% | Draw 26% | Chesterfield 24%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.01 | Draw 3.79 | Chesterfield 4.18. Salford City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Salford City at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salford City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Salford City 40% (last 10 home games) | Chesterfield 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Chesterfield | Competition: League Two, matchday 26 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 50% | Draw 26% | Chesterfield 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Salford City 1.47 / Chesterfield 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 1.046 / def 1.062 | Chesterfield attack 0.830 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Salford City (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Chesterfield xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Salford City vs Chesterfield FAQs
What time does Salford City vs Chesterfield kick off?
Salford City vs Chesterfield kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 11 March 2025 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Chesterfield?
Salford City 0 - 4 Chesterfield.
Where is Salford City vs Chesterfield being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Chesterfield part of?
Salford City vs Chesterfield is a League Two fixture (matchday 26) (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Chesterfield?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 50% chance of winning, Chesterfield a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Chesterfield?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Salford City and Chesterfield will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Salford City vs Chesterfield have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Salford City's attack rating (1.05) and Chesterfield's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chesterfield's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Salford City's last 81 games and Chesterfield's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.79
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.41
0.93
Chesterfield xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
5%
18.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Salford City vs Chesterfield Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Chesterfield?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Salford City and Chesterfield expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Salford City and 0.93 for Chesterfield, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Chesterfield?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Salford City come into this having played 34 games, going 13W 11D 10L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Chesterfield sit at 1.32 PPG from 34 outings (12W 9D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salford City on 1.47 PPG, Chesterfield on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Salford City's home form reads 9W 3D 5L across their last 17 home games, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Chesterfield have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 17 away games (5W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Salford City are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Chesterfield are on 1.53 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Current Season
Chesterfield
Current Season
Salford City (Home) vs Chesterfield (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Salford City
Current Season
Chesterfield
Current Season
❓ Salford City vs Chesterfield Form FAQs
What form are Salford City and Chesterfield in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 13W 11D 10L in their last 34 games (1.47 PPG), while Chesterfield have gone 12W 9D 13L in their last 34 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Chesterfield away?
Salford City's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.76 PPG; Chesterfield away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Salford City or Chesterfield been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Chesterfield in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Chesterfield have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Mar 2025, when Chesterfield won Salford City 0-4 Chesterfield.
Salford City's record when hosting Chesterfield specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Salford City
1
Draws
4
Chesterfield
Recent Meetings
❓ Salford City vs Chesterfield H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Chesterfield?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Salford City have won 0, Chesterfield have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Salford City and Chesterfield last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Salford City 0-1 Chesterfield.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Chesterfield?
Chesterfield have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salford City see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Chesterfield are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 41%, Chesterfield 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Salford City) and 53% (Chesterfield).
On the defensive side: Salford City keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Chesterfield in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Chesterfield away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Salford City vs Chesterfield Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Salford City and Chesterfield matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Salford City's recent matches and 35% of Chesterfield's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Salford City and Chesterfield matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Salford City's recent games and 53% of Chesterfield's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Chesterfield matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Salford City's recent matches and 76% of Chesterfield's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chesterfield run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Salford City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chesterfield beat Salford City 0-4 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.47 xG and Chesterfield 0.93 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Salford City fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Chesterfield outscored their 0.93 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against Chesterfield attack 0.83 / defence 1.10, drawn from 81/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 50% | Draw 26% | Chesterfield 24%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Chesterfield win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 41%, Chesterfield 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Chesterfield's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.47 PPG, Chesterfield 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chesterfield win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chesterfield (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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