Salford City 2-1 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salford City at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salford City vs Carlisle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salford City host Carlisle at The Peninsula Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 1 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salford City stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Salford City's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at The Peninsula Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Peninsula Stadium.
Across all League Two games this season, Carlisle have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Carlisle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Carlisle have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Salford City 1.60 PPG, Carlisle 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Salford City have won 0, Carlisle 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Carlisle winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Salford City in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Carlisle in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 41% versus Carlisle 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Salford City 37% | Carlisle 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.16 xG and Carlisle 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.818 / defence 1.146 | Carlisle attack 0.702 / defence 1.363. League average goals — home 1.038 / away 1.132. Carlisle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.363 — this is suppressing Salford City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Salford City games / 27 Carlisle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 39% | Draw 35% | Carlisle 26%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.56 | Draw 2.86 | Carlisle 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Salford City at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salford City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 40% | Carlisle 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Carlisle | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 39% | Draw 35% | Carlisle 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Salford City 1.16 / Carlisle 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.818 / def 1.146 | Carlisle attack 0.702 / def 1.363 | league avg home 1.038 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Salford City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Carlisle xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Carlisle kick off?
Salford City vs Carlisle kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 February 2022 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Carlisle?
Salford City 2 - 1 Carlisle.
Where is Salford City vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Carlisle part of?
Salford City vs Carlisle is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 39% chance of winning, Carlisle a 26% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Salford City and Carlisle will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Carlisle?
Record (1 meetings): Salford City 0W | Draws 0 | Carlisle 1W.
What form are Salford City and Carlisle in?
Salford City (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Carlisle (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Salford City's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Carlisle's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Carlisle's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
39%
2.58
35%
2.85
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.07
0.91
Carlisle xG
2.58
39%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
8%
12.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 11.5 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Salford City and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Salford City and 0.91 for Carlisle, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Carlisle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Salford City's recent record stands at 10W 6D 11L from 27 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carlisle, meanwhile, have gone 6W 9D 12L across 27 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Carlisle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salford City on 1.33 PPG, Carlisle on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Salford City have managed 5W 5D 3L from 13 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carlisle's away record stands at 3W 2D 8L across 13 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Salford City are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 0.70 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Blended
Carlisle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 10W 6D 11L in their last 27 games (1.33 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 6W 9D 12L in their last 27 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Carlisle away?
Salford City's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.54 PPG; Carlisle away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Salford City or Carlisle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Carlisle in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Nov 2022, when Carlisle won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Salford City's record when hosting Carlisle specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Salford City
1
Draws
3
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Carlisle?
From 6 meetings on record, Salford City have won 2, Carlisle have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Carlisle last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Carlisle 2-2 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Carlisle?
Carlisle have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Salford City 31% BTTS, Carlisle 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Salford City) and 69% (Carlisle).
On the defensive side: Salford City keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Salford City have failed to score in 31% of games; Carlisle in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Carlisle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Salford City's recent matches and 38% of Carlisle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Carlisle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Salford City's recent games and 69% of Carlisle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Carlisle tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Carlisle in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Salford City edge out Carlisle 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Carlisle 2-1 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.16 xG and Carlisle 0.91 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Salford City beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.82 / defence 1.15 against Carlisle attack 0.70 / defence 1.36, drawn from 28/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 39% | Draw 35% | Carlisle 26%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 37%, Carlisle 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Carlisle's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.33 PPG, Carlisle 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.