Port Vale 3-1 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port Vale at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port Vale vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Mansfield Town travel to Vale Park to take on Port Vale. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 15 March 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port Vale stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 League Two matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Port Vale at Vale Park this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all League Two games this season, Mansfield Town have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Mansfield Town's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Port Vale 1.70 PPG, Mansfield Town 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Port Vale, 0 for Mansfield Town and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Port Vale in-play and half-time data (33 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Mansfield Town in-play and half-time data (33 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 58% versus Mansfield Town 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 39% | Mansfield Town 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.19 xG and Mansfield Town 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 1.086 / defence 0.972 | Mansfield Town attack 0.909 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.022 / away 1.097. Data: 34 Port Vale games / 33 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 39% | Draw 34% | Mansfield Town 28%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Mansfield Town 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port Vale as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port Vale offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Port Vale 40% | Mansfield Town 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 39% | Draw 34% | Mansfield Town 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Port Vale 1.19 / Mansfield Town 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 1.086 / def 0.972 | Mansfield Town attack 0.909 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.022 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Mansfield Town xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Port Vale vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Mansfield Town?
Port Vale 3 - 1 Mansfield Town.
Where is Port Vale vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Mansfield Town part of?
Port Vale vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 39% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Port Vale and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Mansfield Town?
Record (1 meetings): Port Vale 0W | Draws 1 | Mansfield Town 0W.
What form are Port Vale and Mansfield Town in?
Port Vale (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Mansfield Town (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Port Vale's attack rating (1.09) and Mansfield Town's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mansfield Town's attack versus Port Vale's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
39%
2.57
34%
2.98
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.16
0.97
Mansfield Town xG
2.57
39%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
8%
11.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.2 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Port Vale and 0.97 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Port Vale have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 14W 11D 8L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Mansfield Town's form line: 16W 8D 9L from 33 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port Vale on 1.61 PPG, Mansfield Town on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Port Vale have posted 1.80 PPG from 15 outings (8W 3D 4L).
On the road, Mansfield Town have gone 4W 5D 6L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mansfield Town's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port Vale are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.39 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town in 61%.
Last 33 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Current Season
Mansfield Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 14W 11D 8L in their last 33 games (1.61 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 16W 8D 9L in their last 33 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Mansfield Town away?
Port Vale's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.80 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2022, when Port Vale won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port Vale's record when hosting Mansfield Town specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Port Vale
1
Draws
1
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Mansfield Town?
From 5 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 3, Mansfield Town have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Mansfield Town 3-0 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Mansfield Town?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Mansfield Town see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 47%, Mansfield Town 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Port Vale) and 40% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Mansfield Town in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Mansfield Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Port Vale's recent matches and 53% of Mansfield Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Port Vale's recent games and 40% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port Vale cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Mansfield Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Mansfield Town 3-1 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 37, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.19 xG and Mansfield Town 0.97 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Port Vale beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 1.09 / defence 0.97 against Mansfield Town attack 0.91 / defence 1.07, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 39% | Draw 34% | Mansfield Town 28%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 39%, Mansfield Town 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (33 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (33 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.61 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.