Port Vale 4-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Port Vale take on Crawley Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 36 as Port Vale welcome Crawley Town to Vale Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port Vale stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 League Two matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Port Vale's home record at Vale Park: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vale Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Crawley Town's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Port Vale 1.50 PPG, Crawley Town 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Port Vale, 0 for Crawley Town and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 4–1 with Port Vale winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Port Vale in-play and half-time data (33 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (33 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port Vale 54% and Crawley Town 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 36% | Crawley Town 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.02 xG and Crawley Town 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.889 / defence 0.970 | Crawley Town attack 0.975 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.034 / away 1.112. Data: 33 Port Vale games / 34 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 32% | Draw 35% | Crawley Town 33%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Crawley Town 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Port Vale 30% | Crawley Town 80%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 32% | Draw 35% | Crawley Town 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Port Vale 1.02 / Crawley Town 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.889 / def 0.970 | Crawley Town attack 0.975 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.034 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Crawley Town xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Crawley Town kick off?
Port Vale vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Crawley Town?
Port Vale 4 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Port Vale vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Crawley Town part of?
Port Vale vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 32% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Port Vale and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Crawley Town?
Record (1 meetings): Port Vale 1W | Draws 0 | Crawley Town 0W.
What form are Port Vale and Crawley Town in?
Port Vale (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Port Vale's attack at 0.89x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Port Vale's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.12
35%
2.89
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.08
1.05
Crawley Town xG
3.12
32%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
11%
8.95
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.05 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Port Vale have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 13W 11D 9L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Crawley Town's form line: 12W 9D 12L from 33 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port Vale on 1.52 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Port Vale have posted 1.67 PPG from 15 outings (7W 4D 4L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 7W 3D 5L from 15 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Port Vale are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.27 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town in 70%.
Last 33 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 13W 11D 9L in their last 33 games (1.52 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 12W 9D 12L in their last 33 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Crawley Town away?
Port Vale's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.67 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Port Vale
0
Draws
0
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Crawley Town?
From 2 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 2, Crawley Town have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Port Vale 4-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Crawley Town?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 40%, Crawley Town 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Port Vale) and 47% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Port Vale have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Port Vale's recent matches and 67% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Port Vale's recent games and 47% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Port Vale run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Crawley Town 4-1 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 36, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.02 xG and Crawley Town 1.05 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Port Vale beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.89 / defence 0.97 against Crawley Town attack 0.97 / defence 1.11, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 32% | Draw 35% | Crawley Town 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Port Vale win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 36%, Crawley Town 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (33 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Crawley Town's trading profile (33 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.52 PPG, Crawley Town 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.