Port Vale 0-0 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port Vale at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port Vale vs Carlisle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Carlisle make the trip to Vale Park to face Port Vale in League Two (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Saturday 21 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Port Vale's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Port Vale have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Carlisle (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Carlisle's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Port Vale. A 1.00 PPG lead over Carlisle (1.80 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Port Vale edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Jan 2024, ended Port Vale 1–2 Carlisle — a Carlisle win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Port Vale goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Carlisle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 42% versus Carlisle 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 42% | Carlisle 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.51 xG and Carlisle 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 1.012 / defence 1.035 | Carlisle attack 0.763 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.194. Carlisle's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Port Vale's last 20 games and Carlisle's last 19.
Result probabilities: Port Vale 50% | Draw 27% | Carlisle 23%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Carlisle 4.35. Port Vale hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port Vale are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port Vale if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Port Vale 60% (last 10 home games) | Carlisle 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Carlisle | Competition: League Two, matchday 21 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 21 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 50% | Draw 27% | Carlisle 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Port Vale 1.51 / Carlisle 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 1.012 / def 1.035 | Carlisle attack 0.763 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Carlisle xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Port Vale vs Carlisle FAQs
What time does Port Vale vs Carlisle kick off?
Port Vale vs Carlisle kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Carlisle?
Port Vale 0 - 0 Carlisle.
Where is Port Vale vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Carlisle part of?
Port Vale vs Carlisle is a League Two fixture (matchday 21) (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 50% chance of winning, Carlisle a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Port Vale and Carlisle will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Port Vale vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Port Vale's attack rating (1.01) and Carlisle's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Carlisle's attack (0.76x) against Port Vale's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Port Vale's last 20 games and Carlisle's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
50%
2.00
27%
3.70
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.46
0.94
Carlisle xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
5%
19.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Port Vale vs Carlisle Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Port Vale and 0.94 for Carlisle, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Carlisle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Port Vale's recent record stands at 20W 17D 28L from 65 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Carlisle, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 41L across 65 games — 0.68 PPG, with W-D-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port Vale by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Carlisle heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Port Vale have managed 10W 7D 15L from their last 32 home games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carlisle's away record stands at 6W 5D 21L across their last 32 away games, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port Vale are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 0.86 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Carlisle
Blended
Port Vale (Home) vs Carlisle (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Port Vale
Blended
Carlisle
Blended
❓ Port Vale vs Carlisle Form FAQs
What form are Port Vale and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 20W 17D 28L in their last 65 games (1.18 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 10W 14D 41L in their last 65 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Carlisle away?
Port Vale's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.16 PPG; Carlisle away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Carlisle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Carlisle in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent in our data was on 18 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port Vale have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Carlisle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Port Vale
2
Draws
2
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Port Vale vs Carlisle H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Carlisle?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Port Vale have won 2, Carlisle have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Carlisle last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2025: Carlisle 3-2 Port Vale.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 50%, Carlisle 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Port Vale) and 47% (Carlisle).
On the defensive side: Port Vale have failed to score in 31% of games; Carlisle in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Port Vale vs Carlisle Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Port Vale and Carlisle matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Port Vale's recent matches and 47% of Carlisle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Port Vale and Carlisle matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Port Vale's recent games and 47% of Carlisle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Carlisle matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Port Vale's recent matches and 75% of Carlisle's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Port Vale's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale and Carlisle finished level at 0-0 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 21, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.51 xG and Carlisle 0.94 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Port Vale fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Carlisle landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Carlisle attack 0.76 / defence 1.20, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 50% | Draw 27% | Carlisle 23%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 42%, Carlisle 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Carlisle's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Port Vale arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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